Over the last week, there have been regular African Easterly Waves that have crossed the West African Coastline. These waves have brought some flooding rains to Senegal and plentiful rains to Cabo Verde, where the country has been in a multi-year drought. All of the global models have suggested that a wave would move off the coast yesterday bringing some rain to Cabo Verde.
Forecasting Flooding
Forecasting rain amounts for Cabo Verde is extremely difficult because of the lack of understanding in relationship to the ocean and the limited observations related to the center of the disturbance. In addition, Cabo Verde has high mountains which can cause even deeper thunderstorms, heavy rain and mudslides. The lack of a radar, does not allow us to really know where the heaviest rain is falling across the islands. As we have seen in the US, Pakistan, Senegal and other locations around the world, flooding is increasing, causing fatalities and destruction… with a possible connection to climate change.
The next 36 hours
The wave that emerged from West Africa is expected to slowly move across the country of Cabo Verde bringing heavy rains across the country tomorrow. Where exactly… Most likely the southern Islands tonight and tomorrow.. and extending to the north and west tomorrow into Wednesday. An area of Low pressure in the global and WRF model is expected to traverse the country tomorrow. The low is not very deep so that we do not expect very strong winds. That said, there is still always some uncertainty about potential tropical cyclone development.
How much Rain ?
Global models are estimating 1-3 inchest of rain across the country through Wednesday. However, because of the slow movement and the terrain in Cabo Verde there could locally be more… (3+ inches) through the next 36 hours. We just have to see what happens tonight. The WRF model suggest more rain on Tuesday rather than tonight…. But the satellite shows deep convection building tonight.
Because of the uncertainty and the fact that the rain will fall during the night-time hours when people are sleeping tonight, there should be some degree of awareness.
Be safe everyone