Author: gsjoko

Over the last year, we have crossed the global mean threshold of 1.5C as a limit set by the Paris Agreement to limit dangerous climate change. The science has been very clear and there is no uncertainty — we must cut greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, Methane, N2O) in order to limit the warming and protect future generations. We have put more than one Trillion tons of CO2 in the atmosphere since the 18th century which can only accumulate in the atmosphere because its lifetime exceeds those of humans (100-300 years).

Presidential candidate Trump does not want to pursue this pathway because his focus is on the present, so we should expect accelerating CO2 emissions from the US. Presidential candidate Harris has been working to reduce CO2 emissions, but there has been a mixed message about the present and future emissions, in part because of political pressure and past practices. If VP Harris wants to address the climate crisis, there will have to be less stress on fossil fuel jobs, such as fracking and on-shore/off-shore gas/oil and put more focus on the creation of jobs from the renewables markets. When people think about oil production, what comes to mind is OPEC and Saudi Arabia. But, the US is now the largest producer of oil making it a significant greenhouse gas contributor.

Furthermore, the number of permits, for drilling has increased under the Biden administration. We know that if Presidential candidate Trump wins, this will only accelerate over time as he wants to get “liquid gold”, which is really “liquid poison” to many communities and future generations, out of the ground.

From the perspective of young people and those not yet born, what is happening seems confusing and has hypocrisy written all over it. The foundation of the issue is the “tyranny of the contemporary”, where we worry about today’s issues only: inflation, interest rates, employment, jobs reports, savings, credit scores, when can I take my next vacation, and how can I live my best life now. We are essentially discounting the lives of those in the global south, poor communities, people of color, the youngest people on the planet today, and those not yet born, including our grandchildren who will face the worst of climate change.

Yet, we have tools informing us (policymakers) on what we need to do in order to limit the climate crisis, to limit tipping points and to protect those who will be here after we are gone. Scholar and scientist Dr. Warren M. Washington, who passed away on October 18, 2024 https://www.fairmountfuneralhome.com/obituaries/Warren-Washington?obId=33523184 was one of those unique individuals who helped to develop the tools that provide us guidance on our actions today. In addition, he helped to foster at least the last two generations of black and brown atmospheric and climate scientists who are working in universities, government, broadcast meteorology, and private industry.

Warren was born in Portland Oregon, and received his PhD from Penn State University (where I currently work) in 1964. He was hired by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder Colorado, and began to develop NCAR’s first General Circulation Models (GCMs) to simulate the climate of Earth. Within a decade, there were numerous GCMs, including NOAA, NASA and UCLA in the United States and others around the world. This was remarkable, given that the number of black PhD atmospheric scientists in the World could be counted on one hand (Charles Anderson, Godwin Obasi, Warren Washington). Warren went on to be inducted into numerous societies, was the first AMS president, received the National Medal of Science, and advised five US presidents.

Warren was a master craftsman, always working to include the other components of the climate system – the oceans, sea ice, greenhouse gases and making the model more efficient so that it could be run for longer and in more realistic manners. For example, the original models used only fixed sea surface temperatures to represent the world’s oceans. Warren and his team improved the ocean representation to that of a swamp (water source), then mixed layer (water source and heat capacity), and finally a fully dynamical ocean. There was a similar process that he used for sea ice, which was initially only based on thermodynamic and not linked to the ocean circulation. These advances took several decades, and involved team building across sub-disciplines and the advancement of parallel computing.

Here is an excerpt from Warren’s 1986 book which was read at his funeral.

Excerpts from An Introduction to Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling , Warren Washington & Claire L. Parkinson

“For centuries individuals have dreamed of being able to understand how the climate system works and from that understanding being able to forecast and perhaps even modify the future climate.  This distant goal has become more approachable as a result of the invention of the modern electronic computer in the mid-twentieth century.  With the computer, it is now possible to solve numerically many of the equations encapsulating the physical laws that govern climate.  This provides us with exciting new possibilities … Improved understanding of the climate system could have substantial impact on the economic well-being of the nations of the world.   …. Therefore, once numerical models reached the stage where the simulations reproduced major features of the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice, a logical next step was for researchers to begin using the models to simulate conditions other than those existent at the present time, such as paleoclimates or possible future climates affected by increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas amounts and aerosols.   … Numerical simulations should continue to increase our understanding of the Earth’s climate system and provide insight into many factors that may influence climate change.  As the models improve, the reliability of their results should increase. The potential benefits for mankind are multifold, as more accurate prediction of future states over both short and long time periods should assist planning decisions in many areas of human activity.  One of the real merits of such models is that they allow the quantitative evaluation of possible changes.  Mankind will need to make choices about how to respond to climate change, and these choices can be aided by enhanced modeling efforts.”

There are now many clips and recordings of Warren speaking about the state of climate science and climate change that he helped to foster as a scientist, scholar, and voice for black and brown people.

Why is this a Climate Crisis again?

The primary greenhouse gases are Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4) and Nitrous oxide (N2O). Both are increasing at alarming rates. When Warren wrote his book, CO2 concentrations were 348 parts per million by volume (ppmv) and today they are 424 ppmv. CH4 concentrations were 1687 part per billion by volume (ppbv) and today 1927 ppbv.

Temperatures over the last 12 months are more than 1.5 C above preindustrial values.

Arctic sea ice which Warren took a real interest in with Claire Parkinson has decreased substantially. It is having a negative effect on the polar ecosystem (life and people).

Droughts and Floods

As of the end of October, most of the United States was experiencing some level of drought. The causes remain unclear, but heat domes seem to be related and during this fall, the Jet remains north of its position, with very few weather systems moving from west to east.

At the same time, floods have also increased with heavy rain in South and North Carolina this year. In Spain, last week more than 200 people were killed because of floods.

Hurricanes

Two Category 5 storms impacted the United States this year. Hurricane Helene made landfall as a category 5 in Florida, but the greatest devastation and loss of life occurred in Western North Carolina where floods destroyed towns and people are still recovering today.

A few weeks later, Hurricane Milton reached sustained wind speeds of 180 MPH while in the Gulf of Mexico but weakened to a Category 2-3 at landfall, sparing many areas from devastating destruction, but many people were still affected by the storm. More than 100 tornadoes were reported in Florida and linked to Milton.

The sum of these events should trigger something to the average person – Change has come.

Warren Washington increased the capacity to fight the Climate Crisis

Warren’s mentoring of students of color over the last few decades has significantly changed the field of atmospheric sciences. Warren was the first scientist of color to be the president of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and now there have been several, including Dr. Marshall Shepherd.

Warren played an important role in fostering many scientists of color in government, academia, research, and industry. From our perspective, Warren was our North Star, guiding us through unknown terrain towards safety in an uncertain field, where we felt isolated most of the time.  Because of his mentoring, we survived and eventually thrived.  This list includes Dr. Marshall Shepherd (UGA), Dr. Vernon Morris (ASU), Dr. Arlene Laing (CMO), Dr. John Cortinas (NOAA), Dr. Everette Joseph (Director NCAR), Dr. Belay Demoz (UMBC), Dr. Marilyn Raphael (UCLA), Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux (State Climatologist of Vermont), Dr. Kevin Petty, myself and many others. Through his mentoring, we were able to mentor a second generation of scientists and many are now moving into successful mid-careers.

If you watch this video, Warren explains that to increase students of color, academic programs must be deliberate and long-lasting to increase representation in the field. At the undergraduate level, Jackson State University has played that role and at the graduate level, Howard University has played the role. At last, years AMS there was a 25th anniversary for the Howard University Program in Atmospheric Sciences program (HUPAS). The outcome of this program was visible, with many of its graduates working in private, government, and academic settings.

A pivotal decision and road ahead for Students and Faculty of color

There are two items, that are of concern to the legacy of Dr. Warren Washington

1. The Supreme Court Ruling of last year. Race is no longer permissible in admissions at US universities. This has the potential to make an already meager number of Black, Hispanic, and Native American students in atmospheric and geosciences decrease further. Admissions officers and faculty can if choose they look away from the inequity that has existed in this country for hundreds of years and instead look at meritocracy. In addition, the anti-DEI movement across the country aims to remove any scholarships that include race, even if the donor wants it to go to students of color. The university will say that such a practice is not compliant with US laws. There is also an effort to remove any effort to hire faculty members of color, with some recent efforts to sue deans who pursue such a path. This flies in the face of what Warren suggested to increase diversity in the field.
2. The upcoming election. While VP Harris needs to be nudged to mitigate carbon emissions, former president Trump will turn the hands of time back and stop mitigation efforts (he can’t do anything about IRA efforts). He would not do anything to address the need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions ASAP in order to limit future warming. In addition, he will resist any DEI efforts at the national level and empower states to do more the get rid of DEI efforts in the public and private sectors. Finally, his goal of privatizing government services (such as the National Weather Service) and cutting the government is very dangerous at a time with disasters are increasing in frequency. Such an act would lead to layoffs for many people of color who have dedicated their lives in service to the United States.

Closing remarks

The last five years leading up to Warren’s transition in October have been remarkable. We have honored Warren while he was alive with the Warren Washington Symposium at Penn State, Warren won the Tyler prize in 2019 and there is now a building on campus named after him.

At Warren’s burial site and later in Warren’s office I felt his absence. I wondered if it all comes down to honoring the sacred and silent space of Warren. That sadness lingers within me, but I know that it is not the truth. Warren has left his legacy, with his beautiful children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren.

As for the field, we are sad but thankful for Warren’s mentoring and growing our community. We will follow Warren’s practice and continue to grow, advance knowledge, and protect our communities.

This struggle is not over, and we owe Warren thanks for giving us the tools and will to press forward. We are part of something bigger…

We will miss you father, brother, friend, and mentor.

Warren, you are physically gone but will always be our Champion.

Warren thanks for being my research mentor and advisor for the last 35 years. You never led me wrong and were too kind. Your spirit can fly with the ancestors. We will look out for Mary.

Peace and Love

For years, scientists have talked about limiting the warming to 1.5 C as a warning for limiting greenhouse gases. Beyond this point, tipping points are approached with potentially devastating damage. We were on track to reach a point in the 2030s, giving us a little time. But guess what: WE PASSED this point in 2023 and 2024. The warmest temperature on the planet was observed less than 2 weeks ago.

Why is the OK with our politicians? Why is ok with us? Why is it ok that the young ones being born today will have to grapple with a Climate Crisis every year, month, week, and day of their lives as adults?

Climate change is real and has been popping up in all kinds of ways for the last few decades, but especially during the last year. This has been the warmest year on record, globally, nationally, states, and locally. The presidential candidates have spoken about issues of the day – migration, inflation and the economy. But the big dog is lurking right behind us (tens of millions in the US and billions globally) — Climate Change.

Some of you are thinking… the global mean temperatures will revert back to past time, right? Well, I have some bad news for you. It has not reverted back in more than 40 years. Furthermore, a big jump in ocean temperatures has been behind the recent warming and not just El Nino. Most of the oceans around the globe have warmed. Well, the ocean is like a huge bathtub of warm that will not cool down quickly, and because Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are only increasing and trapping infrared radiation, it is acting to keep the ocean from cooling down. There are few scientists in the world who can tell you why the oceans have warmed up over the last 2 years without talking about anthropogenic GHGs.

I know that President Biden is aware of the situation and has implemented policies to address GHG emissions, but along the way has had to compromise. That is nice politically, but the climate system doesn’t care about politics, wars, or anything else except the GHG forcing that humans are imposing on it. It will respond, and when it does there is no comeback, only reaction.

People are worried about the economy, but the many billion-dollar disasters are also taking their toll right here in America. People are worried about migration. Guess what, the climate crisis is already forcing people to migrate all around the world. What’s more, we already know what climate migration looked like in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

The US and Europe want their borders closed. Keep playing with this climate crisis, and you won’t be able to stop anyone because you won’t know which direction they are migrating from. In the US, you gonna have this problem at the state level because people will be migrating within the US. Who knows, maybe Americans will be migrating north across the border into Canada because of the climate crisis.

President Trump has vowed to “drill baby drill” from day one. That’s a bad idea, sir. We have to go the other way and fast so that future generations won’t have to deal with the horrible consequences and also the costs of a much warmer planet. Trump, who is on your science team? They aren’t telling you the truth. You need to fire them.

This upcoming week, Tropical Cyclone Debby will make landfall in Florida. Well that is normal this time of year, but take note of two factors… rapid intensification and the flooding that is expected. On Saturday, at landfall the max winds were about 65-75 MPH and today it expected to be stronger at landfall.

The warming oceans lead to stronger tropical cyclones if conditions such as shear and dry air are not present. The ocean temperature are above normal across most of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

The second issue is the potentially catastrophic rainfall that is expected this week. Once the storm makes landfall, the steering currents aloft will collapse, and the storm will rain out in the SE United States. The forecast does not call for a strong enough trough to move Debby northeast until next weekend. So rainfall amounts of more than 1 foot is possible, and flooding is a beast. Where do you evacuate to?

Flooding could be the real story of this tropical cyclone event . In addition to climate change leading to warmer oceans, which can lead to stronger hurricanes, the atmosphere can hold more water vapor, leading to greater rain amounts.

So I ask, why isn’t climate change a leading topic in this presidential race, at the dinner table, and on the minds of Americans? Let’s see how the climate crisis plays over this week, the hurricane season, and the rest of this year. I have a feeling that the climate crisis conversation is one that we can’t ignore forever.

This year we have observed four named storms. Not a whole lot to write home about, but what is noticeable is that the first two came from Africa… kinda Cape Verde tropical storms. However, consider all the abnormal weather we have seen thus far in the US this summer – dry spells, heat waves, floods, and wildfires. Should you worry about this year’s hurricane season? Based on the trends over the last few years, we should be concerned. However, we also are in an El Nino year, which typically means fewer hurricanes because of increased wind shear. Well, what are the reasons for worry:

1. Above-normal ocean temperatures

Ocean temperatures across the Atlantic, Carribean warmer across the Atlantic from Africa to the Gulf of Mexico.

As ocean temperatures continue to warm through October, developing tropical cyclones will have warmer than normal waters to pass over possibly leading to stronger TCs. This year oceans in the Northern Hemisphere have been outright warm. Across the tropical Atlantic, the lack of Saharan dust events has also contributed to warmer than normal ocean temperatures, because normally dust scatters sunlight and leading to cooler ocean temperatures.

2. The West African Monsoon is active

We are about to enter into the mature phase of the monsoon, which is normally August and September. Consequently, moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Guinea has been surging to West Africa from the ground through 3000 feet. This will should strengthen westward moving mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), leading to potential flooding in West Africa, and when in phase with emerging African Easterly waves could become tropical depressions soon after leaving the coast of West Africa.

3. African Easterly waves are looking stronger over West Africa

Normally during the second to fourth week of August, AEWs become apparent as they cross Nigeria as well-defined circulations at about 10,000 feet. Over the last few years, there has been a combination of the typical AEWs and the generation/intensification of waves just off the coast, because of fast-moving winds that generate spin (vorticity). Thus far, the second type of wave generation has been occurring with a disturbance currently developing off the coast of West Africa from the satellite vantage point this evening.

Caption: GOES 16 Image showing emerging disturbance off the coast of West Africa (Wednesday 21:35 EDT).

However, at the beginning of this week, models began to forecast well-defined AEWs moving across Chad into Nigeria and moving westward. It could mean that we are ahead of the curve and should expect the stronger wave activity to commence.

Prepare just in case…. OK

No matter where you are, you should be thinking about the impacts of tropical cyclones during the climate crisis. A hurricane does not need to make landfall in your location to cause major problems. Flooding is a important outcome of decaying tropical cyclones and can be very damaging and also lead to loss of life. Wind damage and storm surge for those living near the coast are primary threats. Below are the five Hurricane hazard risks

Finally, think about putting together a hurricane emergency kit and make sure you consider children, the elderly, and pets. Now is the time!

Over the last week, there have been regular African Easterly Waves that have crossed the West African Coastline. These waves have brought some flooding rains to Senegal and plentiful rains to Cabo Verde, where the country has been in a multi-year drought. All of the global models have suggested that a wave would move off the coast yesterday bringing some rain to Cabo Verde.

Forecasting Flooding

Forecasting rain amounts for Cabo Verde is extremely difficult because of the lack of understanding in relationship to the ocean and the limited observations related to the center of the disturbance. In addition, Cabo Verde has high mountains which can cause even deeper thunderstorms, heavy rain and mudslides. The lack of a radar, does not allow us to really know where the heaviest rain is falling across the islands. As we have seen in the US, Pakistan, Senegal and other locations around the world, flooding is increasing, causing fatalities and destruction… with a possible connection to climate change.

The next 36 hours

The wave that emerged from West Africa is expected to slowly move across the country of Cabo Verde bringing heavy rains across the country tomorrow. Where exactly… Most likely the southern Islands tonight and tomorrow.. and extending to the north and west tomorrow into Wednesday. An area of Low pressure in the global and WRF model is expected to traverse the country tomorrow. The low is not very deep so that we do not expect very strong winds. That said, there is still always some uncertainty about potential tropical cyclone development.

How much Rain ?

Global models are estimating 1-3 inchest of rain across the country through Wednesday. However, because of the slow movement and the terrain in Cabo Verde there could locally be more… (3+ inches) through the next 36 hours. We just have to see what happens tonight. The WRF model suggest more rain on Tuesday rather than tonight…. But the satellite shows deep convection building tonight.

Because of the uncertainty and the fact that the rain will fall during the night-time hours when people are sleeping tonight, there should be some degree of awareness.

Be safe everyone