Author: gsjoko

Over the last 10 days, disturbances from West Africa have moved into the Eastern, Central, and Western Atlantic. Unlike the month of August, the waves have not dissipated but continued westward, even in the face of vertical shear. The formation of destructive Hurricane Fiona was such an example. Two additional waves over the Central and Western Atlantic have the chance to become tropical systems over the next 7 days. A third wave situated near 30 W also has a chance to develop. So September might turn out to be quite different from August.

The Source of a Flooding Threat for Senegal

On Monday evening, a new and potentially powerful African Easterly Wave is moving across Burkina Faso and bringing rain over the Central Sahel region. Since last week, global models have identified this feature as a possible tropical cyclone once it exits into the Atlantic. But prior to the AEW leaving West Africa, all indications are that the disturbance will first cross Senegal. The system is expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds to Senegal and the extreme Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Time of dangerous weather in Senegal

As you may know, tropical rainfall amounts are difficult to predict because of the smaller scale (meso-scale). However, the global models and WRF suggest that heavy rain could begin entering Senegal as early as tomorrow as the wave moves westward. Tomorrow night (Wednesday 21, Sep) through Thursday (22 Sep) look like potentially big impact days with heavy rain moving into Senegal as the system exits the coast.

Any Impacts for Cabo Verde ?

It is still too early to tell, but the global model and WRF suggest that the wave will get pulled north because of a mid-level trough at 500 hPa and not strike the country. Still, this tropical disturbance may have an impact on artisan and commercial fishing along coastal Senegal and Mauritania. There is a possibility that it could become a tropical depression or storm before weakening through shear

Key Takeaways

1. Flooding and severe weather possibilities in Senegal will increase starting Wednesday, Sept 21 through Thursday, Sept 22;
2. Rainfall could be heavy during the night-time hours of Wednesday and Thursday;
3. A tropical depression is possible off the coast of Senegal/Mauritania;
4. At present, the event might miss Cabo Verde, but some monitoring and awareness of the event are required through Friday, Sept 23;
5. Wave activity is still active and likely to impact land areas of West Africa, Cabo Verde, and downstream over the Western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico in the coming weeks.

Strong convection continues to build off the coast of Guinea Bissau tonight. Based on WRF model forecast, the conditions should continue worsen leading to potential flooding. After there are two possibilities, the model will carrie the storm towards the northwest or it will go north and then hook west.

Two primary concerns in the next 24 hours

While Tropical cyclone development impact is a concern, there are more immediate concerns:

(1) Inland flooding along Senegal (including Dakar), Gambia, Guinea Bissau, and Guinea from heavy rainfall. Global models and WRF depict heavy rainfall over the next week, with a significant amount of it coming over the next 48 hours followed by a second round later this week..

The second threat is dangerous seas and coastal flooding, especially in Senegal and the Gambia. If the storm winds up as forecasted it would produce a very strong southerly fetch causing water to build up against the coastline and causing lots of flooding. Such a manifestation would begin sometime Monday, August 29 and last through Wednesday/Thursday even as the storm pulls away.

Cabo Verde on Notice

It is still too early to determine a track or any negative impacts on Cabo Verde. The WRF model has continued to develop a tropical storm for the last 3 days at 1200 UTC. Because of the size of the Islands, tropical cyclone track forecasts are too difficult to predict this far out. Let’s hope that it remains a weak system as the global models are suggesting.

I will continue to monitor, forecast, and talk with my colleagues in West Africa and Cabo Verde. If you live in potential impact zones, please stay aware of rapidly changing conditions. The National Hurricane Center has not yet identified this as a threat but may tomorrow.

Be Safe

For the last few days, we have been watching global forecast models suggest that an emerging African Easterly Wave will develop into a tropical disturbance, potentially impacting Cabo Verde. As suggested in the last blog, we are now entered in the period of active TC development.

The Forecast Dilemma linked to poor observations

Examining the future forecast of 1200 UTC, August 31st 2022, an area of low pressure is found over Cabo Verde in the ECMWF, Canadian, GFS, and WRF forecasts.

The differences between these model simulations could be life giving rains to farmers or damage to the infrastructure and life-threatening seas for the fishing community. Forecasts all have inherent uncertainty, but Africa stands alone and is driven by human factors alone. The observation network has fallen apart and there are very few upper air observations across the continent. Yes, we have satellites, but I am sure that this approach could not be used in the US or Europe. If you add this to the lack of surface measurements including Radars, the forecast infrastructure resembles the 1930s in the United States, except for the use of Satellites. Is that good enough? NOPE, because we are in a warming climate with more weather extremes and growing coastal populations.

What will happen? The Devil is in the details

All of the models show that the storm over Cabo Verde next week. However, the path to getting there will be the difference maker. The ECMWF forecast the area of low pressure developing from the north (via Mauritania). The GFS and WRF show the development from further south (Guinea/Guinea Bissau) and the Canadian model shows the disturbance crossing Senegal. The ECMWF scenario may not have major implications for flooding and dangerous seas but the other forecasts (Canadian, GFS, WRF) definitely have significant consequences well before any storm arrives to Cabo Verde.

Lessons from the Past (Hurricane Fred)

Back in 2015, I was on the island of Sal when Hurricane Fred passed through Cabo Verde on August 31st. The track that the storm took was similar to the present GFS, WRF model forecast. This disturbance was also forecasted out about 7 days in advance but went through rapid intensification out over the sea. Fishermen were lost at sea off the coast of Guinea Bissau and also Cabo Verde. Damage occurred on numerous islands across Cabo Verde. Along the coast of Senegal, the damage was widespread across many coastal fishing villages and the capital of Dakar. We made recommendations about how to better protect the populations in the manuscript. Nothing has since happened. The value of journal articles.

The Next 96 hours

While we do not know, the exact path of the tropical disturbance, it is prudent to expect potentially dangerous conditions, potentially impacting millions of people from Guinea, north to Senegal and to the west in Cabo Verde. The following hazards are likely

Flooding

All of the models tend to poorly represent rainfall so we must estimate based on what the models project. 100-200 mm of rainfall (5-10 inches) are possible with the passage of the system. The heavy precipitation will commence by tonight through the next 2-3 days in coastal zones–including Dakar.

Dangerous seas

If the disturbance develops off the Guinea coast, dangerous seas should be expected throughout the entire zone. Coastal flooding could threaten fishing communities from Guinea to Dakar, Senegal. The longer the system is off the coast, the more likely it is to generate a southerly fetch to drive coastal flooding in some areas.

Cabo Verde

Based on the current forecast, a tropical depression seems possible but it could be worse. The 1200 WRF forecast suggests a tropical storm moving across the country on 31st. Too early to tell if this scenario plays out but it would likely yield coastal damage from the seas, and strong winds, with potential flooding in some areas.

Pay attention please to your local news

We are in the most dangerous part of the monsoon season in West Africa, with major flooding events over the last 3 years across the region. Senegal and Cabo Verde have both experienced such events. Similar to the US coastal population, you are vulnerable and should have a plan to protect your life, loved ones, and important documents.

The most important thing is to pay attention to the local news over the next few days. Reports of flooding or damage via social media are good given the lack of observations in the region.

Stay Safe, listen to the news, evaluate your state of preparedness, and we will continue to analyze upcoming forecasts and observations.

This afternoon, a tropical disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico shows signs of development, while most of the Atlantic remains free of tropical cyclones. This has been the trend for most of the summer. But yesterday’s wrf model forecast shows waves passing across West Africa with abundant rain in the Western Sahel including Senegal. At the end of the forecast period on approximately August 23rd, an African Easterly Wave (AEW) is expected to emerge off the coast with the potential for development. The ECMWF and Canadian model forecast at 1200 UTC, Friday August 19 shows this wave strengthening as it moves westward.

In my experience, August 19-Oct 5 will be the time when the potential for AEWs leaving the coasts to develop into a tropical depression, storm or hurricane. At present, all meteorological factors indicate a good environment for tropical disturbances to form in the Eastern Atlantic: A strong Monsoon flow, an African Easterly Jet (AEJ) that is in the northern Sahel or Southern Sahara, a large zone of easterly winds at 200 hPA (the tropical easterly jet), and limited dust intrusions from the Sahara desert.

Looks like August 23-27 will be the first tropical disturbance to watch from West Africa, with stronger waves to follow in the coming weeks. Now is a good time to be prepared for Tropical cyclone activity as we move into the heart of the hurricane season. Check out the Hurricane Preparedness webpage for more details.

https://www.noaa.gov/hurricane-prep

If you live in Senegal, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau please be prepared for flooding rains.

Yesterday (Sunday, Aug 7) was the first time that the National hurricane center has suggested that an African Easterly Wave (AEW) off the coast of West Africa will form. To be sure, it has been a very different Atlantic hurricane and wet season in West Africa.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season

Thus far, three tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic during June and the first three days of July, and since then… zilch. There have been AEWs moving across Africa and transiting into the Eastern Atlantic. So why have there been so few developments across the Central and Western Atlantic? VERTICAL SHEAR. In a typical La Nina Year, the atmosphere promotes less westerly shear and more easterly shear, allowing AEWs to develop over the Atlantic. Did that happen this year? Nope!! There was so much westerly shear aloft that the systems had no chance of developing over the Central Atlantic. The cause for this shear may have been linked to the heat dome over the Great Plains .. just a guess. Anyway, over the last week, the shear over the Central Atlantic has weakened and AEWs have a chance to more development, but a lot of that will depend on the source of the AEWs — West Africa.

The West African Rainy Season

The early seasonal forecast suggested that West Africa would be wetter than normal. Well maybe in some places but not all. Most of the rainfall in West Africa is organized by the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) in the form of Mesoscale Convective systems which are often linked to the AEWs. AEWs look like an inverted letter V, unless they are very strong, then it takes on the form of a closed cyclone. Take a look at the forecasted AEW from August 6 and the simulated reflectivity (rainfall). Rainfall tends to be located around the V-shaped AEWs or where the lines are close together (AEJ), which creates vertical shear and organizes squall lines. Notice that the closed vortex is the one that the hurricane center says has a chance for development. OK enough Meteorology.

What we have seen thus far (June-now), is the AEJ which is located further south at times, or a lack of AEWs. This had led to dry spells and a lack of rain over the last 30 days, especially along the Gulf of Guinea and Mali.

The last 10 days heading into the mature part of the West African Monsoon have been even drier. The exception is Senegal…

Why Senegal Matters for the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Way back in the day, there was a young bright PhD student from Colorado State University, today known as Dr. Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center. I was a postdoc and read some of his work, which was being directed by the late Dr. William Gray. This work showed that there was a high correlation between rain amounts in Dakar and hurricane activity. I understand now that more frequent or stronger AEWs when passing Senegal are more likely to develop into tropical disturbances. Over the last two years, we have observed very wet conditions in Senegal, and Atlantic Hurricanes have been very active.

The strange thing is that the flooding has been excessive causing much hardship across Senegal in 2020 and 2021 but not so much elsewhere. For decades there have been discussions about the source of AEWs being in Nigeria or further east in Ethiopia. What 2020 and 2021 brought was the generation of disturbance off the coast of Senegal and moving towards the Central and Western Atlantic.

All things being equal, there should active disturbances emerging from the Eastern Atlantic and heading towards the Americas over the next 2 weeks. If Senegal is wetter than during this period, then watch out – we will be in for a wild ride in September and October. Cabo Verde and all land areas to the west (the Caribbean, Central America, the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico) should remain vigilant.

When the first Africans were taken from Nigeria to Portugal in 1434 to Lagos, it was not voluntary. They probably did not know that tens of millions would follow to the Americas and Caribbeans. They knew that their lives were changed forever and but did not know that guns were created in China several centuries earlier and had arrived to terrorize Black people in Africa and its diaspora for the next six centuries.
Throughout most of the 16 through 19th century, guns were provided to chiefs and kings to raid their ethnic neighbors in exchange for human beings who never knew their destiny in the new lands. They told leaders w that guns would provide a new level of security that they had never had before. Today, most white people in the United States hold this to be true as part of the 2nd Amendment, and even some black people still believe this.
However, the present nor does history support this position. While there have been wars throughout time, at no time has the level of killing at the individual level been so great in the United States. Whether it is malls, concerts, or school shootings, the number of people dying from gun violence is increasing within black or brown neighborhoods.

Guns supporting the enslavement or extinction of humans for last six centuries

The power of killing or injuring a person from a distance probably seemed fascinating to individuals several centuries ago. Still, the extinction of indigenous people in the Caribbean and Americas can only be seen as tragic. The enslavement of millions of Africans who remain displaced and remain in the lowest caste in so-called developed countries is also tragic.

In the United States, the 2nd Amendment is the white man’s power because, at the end of the day, the gun is the foundation of this country, even if millions have died. You can go into Walmart and gunshops throughout the country and grab what you perceive as power without realizing the pain and tears in doing so.

For the US black community, guns have taken away our beloved leaders such as Medgar Evers, Malcolm X, Martin Luther King Jr., and Fred Hampton, and countless others who are not known. Guns, which are individual weapons of mass destruction, enslaved us and kept us enslaved at the hands of unjust slave owners, militia, and normal so-called white citizens in the United States until the end of the Civil War. During Jim Crow, the gun was used to snatch black men and women from their homes during daylight and nighttime hours when they were unjustly accused of crimes. Often hanging from trees without trial, the bodies of the beloved were filled with bullets from white gun owners. In some cases, the guns were used to enforce large-scale white violence against black cities such as Wilmington, North Carolina, or Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Today, in cities across America, people die from gun violence through intention or accident. Black youth who want a future must struggle in the presence of gun violence, feeling but not fully understanding the centuries of gun violence against them and their ancestors. They hear the ridiculous debates about gun rights but not about human rights or how guns have degraded black lives for the last six centuries. They lose their friends and suffer emotionally with countless mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles, and grandparents. The present situation reminded me of the enslavement period when fear and loss of loved ones from slave raids were on every village’s mind in West and Southern Africa.

People always say that I should be safe when I travel to Africa. However, little do they know that I feel safer in Africa than any place in the United States because gun ownership is minimal because of colonialism. The army and police hold all of the guns, making them a source of worry, but I don’t have to think about someone pulling a gun on you, walking into a school, concert, or store shooting everyone up.

This morning, I read that they stopped the National’s baseball game because of gunshots.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/07/17/nationals-park-

The people in the stands, baseball players, and everyone took cover, and yet the main reflection from such an event is a delayed baseball game until the next day.

Yet the situation is so serious, with gun violence and homicides currently erupting in many cities and neighborhoods as the pandemic winds down. There is police gun violence and individual gun violence. The COVID-19 virus took the breath from many loved ones in the black community and, along with bullets from guns, leaves visible or invisible scars every day. Only when you are in a position of superiority can you lose valuable lives and not feel that they are valuable. When black teenagers die from gun violence, the future is compromised as the young have become ancestors before their time. Their promise for a better day is dissipated into vapor, and hopelessness gains power.

We need to wake up from the fantasy of the Avengers and other movies that suggest that aliens want to destroy and kill humans. Let’s get it right: we are killing each other. The aliens look alike, and the weapons are centuries-old, not futuristic, and have taken the lives of too many.

We don’t need Guns

We need peace…

We need to remember who we are…

We need to remember our purpose …..

We need to heal ourselves from 500 years of generational trauma !!

This morning was like any other day, thinking about how much writing that I could get done on a chapter about Climate Justice in Africa. An email comes from Leila Baccouche saying I don’t know if you have heard that my sister Aziza passed. I just looked at the screen in a daze trying to process the email. Naw this can’t be right, it can’t be, it just can’t be. She died on June 11, 2021, Leila said….still not processing or comprehending. Aziza was the one with the unbreakable spirit, the inspiration, the victor for those overcoming the odds- the Shero.

This can’t be true. So many conversations came to mind, and her voice to my ear…

“Yes We Can”;

“God Bless you”;

“MashAllah”;

“I feel my purpose”;

“I feel a little tired Dr. Jenkins, I just need to rest for a minute”;

“Vision and sight are not the same thing.”

The last time I saw Aziza was just before the COVID-19 Pandamic struck in February 2020 with her sister Leila. I had invited her to give a talk with the support from my Dean and several from across the college. She came and visited my METEO class on python and atmospheric data, spoke to the high school students from the EnvironMentors program, and gave a seminar. Sadly, we had lots of computer problems in running her PowerPoint. Didn’t really matter, because her presence and what she stood for was the most important thing.

Dr. Z or Aziza as I always called her was Seeking Vision. She had undergone many brain operations but was always hopeful and grateful for the physics -such as proton therapy that might help her one day regain vision.

I had first seen Dr. Z in the Physics department and she was doing video work to promote the department with Dr. Venable, who was the chair of the department at the time and spending time with Dr. Lindesay. I saw her walking Thirkield Hall with her white cane wondered what she was doing. She was making a film for the department on @howard…. what an odd things I thought. I didn’t know that she had worked for CNN and that her degree as a physicist made her a remarkable science reporter.

I became the chairperson of the physics department in 2007 and it was during that year that I because friends with Dr. Z. One of Howard’s Physics department’s finest undergraduates, Dr. Beth Brown was getting the telescope in working shape while she was a scientist at NASA Goddard.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beth_A._Brown

One morning, the message came that she had suddenly died. It was then that we hired Dr. Z to do a short documentary on Dr. Brown’s life. I drove down to SW Virginia with Aziza and her cameraman Mike to interview Dr. Beth Brown’s parents. It was a moving experience with Dr. Z showing incredible professionalism and sensitivity with the interview. Part of the interview was shown at the National Society for Black Physicists meeting in Nashville in 2009. Even with that, Dr. Z was interview many of the community’s brightest scientists.

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Dr. Z – Flying into the Hurricane

The next adventure with Dr. Z was her taping a hurricane flight with the multi-agency (NASA-GRIP/NOAA-IFEX/NSF-PREDICT) hurricane field experiment in 2010. I had gotten some funding from NSF for Aziza to make a film for the public describing the field campaigns. My graduate student at the time, Dr. Yaitza Luna-Cruz would be flying on the NASA DC-8 flights, while I was down in Barbados taking ozonesonde and radiosonde measurements related to passing hurricanes and tropical disturbances. Dr. Z and her crew — including Tarik went to Florida to participate in flights. Aziza wanted to go on the DC-8 flights to direct the film but there were safety concerns with her being legally blind. So she directed her crew about the filming while on board. Her vision to know how she wanted the film to turn out was amazing. She always reiterated… Vision is not about being sighted. Her team flew one of the NASA missions and they filmed it and spoke to scientists from various field campaigns. She also came to Barbados to film me taking measurements…I really didn’t want her to do it but she insisted.

Prior to the film coming out, Dr. Z interviewed me about hurricanes, on her program call @Howard which included the lack of people of color in the sciences, and the future of hurricanes. She is such a professional!! I love Aziza!!

But at last, the film came out and I was quite happy with the work of Dr. Z.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxPArwEHGAk

After I left Howard in 2015, we stayed in touch. Dr. Z would call me to find out about film opportunities. She told me that the struggle was multifold–her health–being hired as an African American filmmaker that was legally blind —and her respect as a scientist.

I think that while the world was moving into social media, Dr. Z was always tuning her craft, expanding her vision, and exploring new science topics. When she came to PSU last year, my spirit was raised. There was something really good, spiritual, and wholesome about being in the presence of Dr. Z. She said that she believed that she was getting closer to her purpose and also getting her eyesight back. I think that she found her purpose which was to inspire, now and in the future.

It’s hard to think about not seen Dr. Z again. Her talents will be missed but must be taken up by other young scientists who have an interest in filmmaking. We can honor Dr. Z by being better communicators to the public and to young people thereby inspiring them to consider the science journey and the life of the mind.

A sad day, but take heart. The spirit of Dr. Z- physicist, filmmaker and visionary will never die – and will only inspire future filmmakers.

God Bless you Dr. Z. and your family.

Mashallah.

You will be dearly missed but never forgotten.