This morning was like any other day, thinking about how much writing that I could get done on a chapter about Climate Justice in Africa. An email comes from Leila Baccouche saying I don’t know if you have heard that my sister Aziza passed. I just looked at the screen in a daze trying to process the email. Naw this can’t be right, it can’t be, it just can’t be. She died on June 11, 2021, Leila said….still not processing or comprehending. Aziza was the one with the unbreakable spirit, the inspiration, the victor for those overcoming the odds- the Shero.
This can’t be true. So many conversations came to mind, and her voice to my ear…
“Yes We Can”;
“God Bless you”;
“MashAllah”;
“I feel my purpose”;
“I feel a little tired Dr. Jenkins, I just need to rest for a minute”;
“Vision and sight are not the same thing.”
The last time I saw Aziza was just before the COVID-19 Pandamic struck in February 2020 with her sister Leila. I had invited her to give a talk with the support from my Dean and several from across the college. She came and visited my METEO class on python and atmospheric data, spoke to the high school students from the EnvironMentors program, and gave a seminar. Sadly, we had lots of computer problems in running her PowerPoint. Didn’t really matter, because her presence and what she stood for was the most important thing.
Dr. Z or Aziza as I always called her was Seeking Vision. She had undergone many brain operations but was always hopeful and grateful for the physics -such as proton therapy that might help her one day regain vision.
I had first seen Dr. Z in the Physics department and she was doing video work to promote the department with Dr. Venable, who was the chair of the department at the time and spending time with Dr. Lindesay. I saw her walking Thirkield Hall with her white cane wondered what she was doing. She was making a film for the department on @howard…. what an odd things I thought. I didn’t know that she had worked for CNN and that her degree as a physicist made her a remarkable science reporter.
Dr. Z spotlights Howard Physics.
I became the chairperson of the physics department in 2007 and it was during that year that I because friends with Dr. Z. One of Howard’s Physics department’s finest undergraduates, Dr. Beth Brown was getting the telescope in working shape while she was a scientist at NASA Goddard.
The late Dr. Beth Brown.. Standing at Howard University with a HU student and DCPS Teacher.
One morning, the message came that she had suddenly died. It was then that we hired Dr. Z to do a short documentary on Dr. Brown’s life. I drove down to SW Virginia with Aziza and her cameraman Mike to interview Dr. Beth Brown’s parents. It was a moving experience with Dr. Z showing incredible professionalism and sensitivity with the interview. Part of the interview was shown at the National Society for Black Physicists meeting in Nashville in 2009. Even with that, Dr. Z was interview many of the community’s brightest scientists.
Dr. Z interviews at the NSBP, Speaks about her film and Dr. Brown’s family are acknowledged by the NSBP community (NSBP- Nashville 2009)
Dr. Z –Flying into the Hurricane
The next adventure with Dr. Z was her taping a hurricane flight with the multi-agency (NASA-GRIP/NOAA-IFEX/NSF-PREDICT) hurricane field experiment in 2010. I had gotten some funding from NSF for Aziza to make a film for the public describing the field campaigns. My graduate student at the time, Dr. Yaitza Luna-Cruz would be flying on the NASA DC-8 flights, while I was down in Barbados taking ozonesonde and radiosonde measurements related to passing hurricanes and tropical disturbances. Dr. Z and her crew — including Tarik went to Florida to participate in flights. Aziza wanted to go on the DC-8 flights to direct the film but there were safety concerns with her being legally blind. So she directed her crew about the filming while on board. Her vision to know how she wanted the film to turn out was amazing. She always reiterated… Vision is not about being sighted. Her team flew one of the NASA missions and they filmed it and spoke to scientists from various field campaigns. She also came to Barbados to film me taking measurements…I really didn’t want her to do it but she insisted.
Prior to the film coming out, Dr. Z interviewed me about hurricanes, on her program call @Howard which included the lack of people of color in the sciences, and the future of hurricanes. She is such a professional!! I love Aziza!!
But at last, the film came out and I was quite happy with the work of Dr. Z.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxPArwEHGAk
After I left Howard in 2015, we stayed in touch. Dr. Z would call me to find out about film opportunities. She told me that the struggle was multifold–her health–being hired as an African American filmmaker that was legally blind —and her respect as a scientist.
I think that while the world was moving into social media, Dr. Z was always tuning her craft, expanding her vision, and exploring new science topics. When she came to PSU last year, my spirit was raised. There was something really good, spiritual, and wholesome about being in the presence of Dr. Z. She said that she believed that she was getting closer to her purpose and also getting her eyesight back. I think that she found her purpose which was to inspire, now and in the future.
It’s hard to think about not seen Dr. Z again. Her talents will be missed but must be taken up by other young scientists who have an interest in filmmaking. We can honor Dr. Z by being better communicators to the public and to young people thereby inspiring them to consider the science journey and the life of the mind.
A sad day, but take heart. The spirit of Dr. Z- physicist, filmmaker and visionary will never die – and will only inspire future filmmakers.
Dr. Z at Penn State give a presentation – Feb 2020Dr Z and Dr. J
This blog is dedicated to Dr. Carter G. Woodson architect of Black History Month (BHM) and one heck of a scholar for the people.
This month we celebrate BHM and the contributions of black doctors, writers, artists, engineers, designers, entrepreneurs, and scientists to America and the World. We celebrate them not only because of their contributions but also what they endured in a society where exclusion and racism have been part of the 400-year narrative. Today, the life of scholars at a university is designed to flow around publishing and funding. It wasn’t always like this, but it has morphed into this narrow view of an academic career. Universities rant and rave about reaching the 1 billion dollar mark for research funding. No one ever seems to think that most of this money comes from the Federal government and taxpayers’ dollars.
As we celebrate Black History, there are many black scholars whose voices, contributions, and genius have been muted by the very system that should be inclusive and promote new knowledge and scholarship. The topic is hard to discuss because it is part of a privileged system where thinking is paramount. It is also difficult because I know from first-hand experience what many black scholars have dealt with and it is not a pretty picture.
The Big Picture
At every university, young scholars enter into the famed tenure-track position with the thought of a glorious career (Figure 1). It is well known that such a scholar has to go up for tenure in the 5 or 6th year and if they are not granted tenure… they pack up their things, families and head out for another university or career. I’ll come back to this later.
Figure 1. How a University professor life unfolds
In some universities such as the Ivy League schools, you are supposed to move your discipline with some breakthroughs and even then, you might not receive tenure. I haven’t said much about teaching, because research is what drives Public R-1 Institutions in the United States. You could be the best teacher in the world, but if you can publish and find the money you won’t have job security. A successful career as a faculty member includes securing grants, funding graduate students, presenting research at conferences, and publishing. After being tenured, this faculty member may receive additional awards and honors, become a chair of a department, dean, or president of a university. But if you can’t get through the first hurdle….kiss that last sentence goodbye!! This is where it becomes sticky for faculty members of color.
THE PEER REVIEW SYSTEM FOR PUBLISHING AND GRANTS
The piece of the puzzle that all faculty members have to deal with is how to get their work published or funded. Well, the two processes are basically the same, with just different players (Figure 2). In this case of publishing, it is an Editor and for funding, at government agencies, it is the program manager.
Figure 2. The Peer Review Process for publishing or Funding
So imagine that you are spending months or even years working on ideas that you would like to share within your discipline. You find that journal and you submit the work and 2-3 people examine your work, send back a report to the editor, and then a decision is rendered (Figure 2). For a typical journal, this process takes from 2-6 months. In many cases, the reviewers will ask you to revise your manuscript. But who are the blind reviewers? Normally they are people in your discipline that are qualified to review your work–we think. You can even request certain reviewers but the process is blind and only the editor knows. There are some journals like Science and Nature where the editor decides if your paper can go forward. These journals only accept 10-15 percent of the papers they receive. If your paper is accepted, you generally have to pay page charges and sign copyright documents to the journal.
Funding an idea is the same exact process. You propose an idea, submit it to an agency and the program manager sends your proposed work out for review (Figure 2). The big difference is that money comes to play. This money will fund your graduate students or postdocs, send you to present your work at conferences, and pay the fees for publishing. It takes about 6 months to get a proposal reviewed.
Where the Peer Review systems go south for Scholars of Colorthat publish
Networks. So much of University life is around trying to move up the ranks by bringing in more money. There is an understanding that if you received your doctorate from certain schools then you have buying power. So, normally historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) cannot stand up to Ivy League, PAC-10, Big 10 schools, or most predominately white institutions (PWIs) for that matter. If you clustered the research dollars for all HBCUs in the country, it is much less than what Johns Hopkins University would receive in 1 year. This creates an export mindset where HBCUs make great undergraduates but really cannot fund large numbers of graduate students because it needs its faculty to bring in research dollars. The question is how can you do both at the same time when undergraduate students from our communities need the additional and mentoring which requires time. So many of our graduates must do their research at a powerhouse school and it is the professor that they study under, that provides the linkages to the larger network. In STEM disciplines, the network is almost always white. These are the people who will review your proposals and papers. Many black and brown scholars are not part of these networks. Even if they are, they represent a very small percentage (1-2%) in STEM disciplines
The Blind Review System of publishing. The blind review systems can be harsh to people of color. The reviews can be nasty, hurtful, and sometimes overtly racists. They can look to dissect your work, validate your calculations, or just outright reject your work with no basis. It is then up to the Editor to either accept the reviewer’s opinions to accept or reject the work or to find new reviewers (Figure 3). But what if there are reviewers that believe that black people are not intelligent and therefore no matter what they publish, it cannot be correct. It is easy to identify you as a person of color in some fields because there are so few. Sometimes, the reviewers try to go outside the boundaries of your work and carry you off from the objectives of your study. What can happen, is that ask you to revise but when you send in the reviews, they never respond back to the editor. Hence, you have to begin a new search. Your paper takes a long time to get accepted while you are on the tenure clock or in working on a funded proposal with no publications to report in your annual review.
I know Black faculty members who have told me that their work was rejected so many times (more than 10). Reviewers are asked not to share the work of the submitter with anyone else, but it is very likely that they do because sometimes the reviews look so similar. I believe that some might even stoop so low as to have their graduate student or even undergraduates review a manuscript for a faculty member of color.
Figure 3. The publishing cycle. Red Blocks are where Scholars of color run into roadblocks
Editors How many editors understand what is going on? How many want to challenge their colleagues who may write a biased review? How many editors understand the pressure of being black or brown at a University and how it is tied to your livelihood. Do they think that we live in a colorblind world???? The worst part of it is when I heard a black mentor tell me that they were broken by the peer-reviewed system. The reviewers did not know how to reject the paper at the end the editor said that they could not accept the research. I had a submitted paper (to PLOS) with several colleagues and it took nearly a year to address the reviews and then the editor finds a third reviewer who just straight out rejects the work. The editor did not give us a chance to respond and just rejected the work. I will never submit a journal there again. I actually believe that some of the editors are racist and act as gatekeepers. I can prove that, just a gut feeling.
WHERE THE PEER REVIEW SYSTEMS GOES SOUTH FOR SCHOLARS OF COLORTHAT seek funding
Because of the connections between publishing and funding, the consequences for faculty members of color are even more critical in the pre-tenure phase. Because if a faculty member cannot gain funding, how can they support graduate students to help with their scholarships, how can they pay for conferences and publications (Figure 4)?
Figure 4. The Funding Cycle and where research of color have trouble.
The Blind Review System of Funding
Our large science agencies such as the National Science Foundation (NSF), National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Department of Energy (DOE) and NASA produce announcements of opportunity. Scientists can apply for funding and these grants are reviewed by individuals or panels. The key person is the program manager who normally has the final decision on funding. In the case of NSF, there are criteria from poor, fair, good, very good, and excellent. Generally, one poor or fair score torpedoes a proposal. The number of reviewers can vary from 3-6. NIH has a panel of scientists who examines proposals. At NIH, your proposal must make it to the discussion phase just to be considered. Studies have shown how bias NIH is towards black scholars that submit proposals — many do not make the discussion. While all of this seems pretty normal, if we start asking important questions about representation of reviewers, panels and program managers it becomes clear that not many are people of color.
When reading through the comments from proposal reviews one also feels that somehow race enters into the story. For example, NSF has criteria called broader impacts. A broader impact might including increasing diversity. However, no one knows if that score really even matters to the overall proposal. In the final outcome, the word of the reviewers and the program manager carries all of the weight. However, there are coded words that have a meaning. For younger faculty members of color:
1.) Try to find a more senior person on your proposal – for a person of color it means find a white senior colleague.
2.) Find someone in who is a specialist in subject X. You realize that you already have people of color who are specialist in subject X.
3.). The process was so competitive and we can’t fund everyone. Well who go funded?
Are there any Solutions?
Yes, but they require that we evaluate the current system of funding and publishing carefully. Some think that this system is old and started back in the 1700s but it really less than 50 years old. The original peer review was in the hands of editors and now it’s the Editor and blind reviewers. Peer review is also relatively new to funding agencies and came out the need of a congressman to know what kind of work was being funded. To learn more about the system of peer review in journals and grants please read.
Any system that depends on a few people where the actions remain behind the curtain needs oversight. I say that the blind-blind review has the best chance for a fair review. This means that originators of the work should not be known to the reviewers. It complicated because the references often give away the authors. Maybe there are other ways, but either close the curtains completely or have full disclosure in a system where racism, sexism, and other forms of bias exist in the minds of reviewers.
EDITORS and program managers should be held accountable if bias is found in the acceptance rate or unacceptable behavior of reviewers are found
There is an accounting system at publishers and where the contributions (which institutions) are submitting journals. If Minority Serving Institutions (MSIs), African Institutions, or those in the African Diaspora are being rejected at a significant rate, the editor must bear responsibility. If black or brown submitters are identifiable their data should also be examined. Editors should identify reviewers who have a record of rejecting or doing other unethical behavior and remove them for good as reviewers. Doesn’t matter if they are a good reviewer or not. Racist behaviors are not acceptable in a blind review system. In a similar manager, racist and biased behaviors by reviewers are unacceptable when taxpayers are supporting federal research. I am sure that most taxpayers would not be supportive of such behavior and the program manager should not support it either. If a program manager does support such treatment they should be removed. Both Editors and Program managers should look at their attitudes towards race, privilege, and racism. This is a necessary reflection followed by a discussion if an anti-racist position is to be taken.
RETHINK the value of a journal Article
Journal such as Science and Nature are seen as elite journals with only 10-15% of manuscripts accepted. Does this mean that the other 85% aren’t any good? What does it mean for scientists who will spend decades working on a particular topic and never publish in Science; are they less? What message are we sending to undergraduates and graduates who feel that they must publish in order to be considered good scientists or even to get into graduate school or find a job? Does this type of competition lead to greater disparities with scholars who have published going to elite institutions instead of smaller universities, HBCUs, or Hispanic Serving Institutions? Where does this race lead to??? A proliferation of journals where scientists see the more they publish, the more privileged they become? Research is humbling at best, takes time to reflect on, often needs revisions, and is meant for others to follow the popcorn trail. It is a lot more than citations, which universities love and funding agencies feel that the money has been justifiably spent. Black scholars should not feel compelled to get their work accepted in only the top journals. Promotion and Tenure review committees should not insist on this measure and they should not penalize faculty members to submit their work to journals that have a focus on black issues.
Reimagine the value of funded research
Research networks are old and built with a certain level of exclusion that exists with schools of thought. Quite often, researchers who do not follow the existing paradigm are locked outside forever. When money is involved, greed and power always assert their presence. The so-called experts may protect their turf by making sure that people outside their networks don’t make their way in. This is a fractal pattern that exists throughout all of American society and Western Civilization for that matter. It is a kind of intellectual capitalism where the rich get richer and favors large public institutions. The disparities in research dollars continue to increase limiting research and scholarship at small institutions and MSIs. The funders will say, we have special money set aside for MSIs…really? How much of your multi-billion dollar budget is set aside? How often do these institutions get a chance to lead in important research efforts that help the nation and the world? The data is right in front of all of us. We are just accepting what is presented without ever thinking that we are all supporting federal agencies and research at universities through our tax dollars. Equity should be part of the consideration.
Adopt an Anti-Racist Research Postureat Institutions of higher learning and funding agencies
The moment that we think that only certain types of people or institutions are responsible for producing research we fall back into the 17th century with Henry Oldenburg and deciding the fate of research contributions. If we believe that only one or two BIPOC undergraduate/graduate students, faculty members are representative of a department what doe that mean? Is that the case with basketball and football teams where the teams are at least 50% or more black and TV and sneaker contracts are on the line? It looks like the intellectual and basketball arenas are the same: Black Athletes and White Scholars. Things that make you go hmmm.
If we really want to change this, it starts with leveling access to education. Public institutions were not made for white students or faculty members just as HBCUs were not made for Black students or faculty members. They just evolved with Jim Crow America. If public institutions want to limit the entrance of black and brown students and faculty, then large sums of money need to be diverted to MSIs and community colleges so that scholars and researchers have a chance to blossom. These institutions can develop their own journals so that research and scholarship can be produced to serve the nation and the world.
Final Thoughts
Some may read this blog and think that the writer is jaded. When I have to go through some of the nonsense, I am angry. As a whole, I have experienced a gratifying career. I have had excellent role models (black, white, and Hispanic) that have been kind enough to show me the good path. I have spent most of my career studying the African Continent and have learned so much about how the African climate and weather system works. The continent has been my greatest teacher. I have enjoyed modeling and taking measurements with so many bright black scientists and students. I find great rewards in seeing their careers evolve. If I am granted a wish before I leave this planet, I would like to create an electronic journal that is interdisciplinary, inclusive, and fair for people of color. This journal will be devoted to serving the community, finding solutions for the grand challenges such as Climate Justice, and letting the scholarly work that brings happiness to its producers see the light of day. I would hope that other scholars and like-minded people would help in this quest.
This journal would be modeled after the genius that Dr. Carter G Woodson laid down when he started The Journal of Negro History in 1916 and later renamed to The Journal of African American History.
Epilogue
The COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the world of journals into confusion. Preprints have come out by the hundreds or thousands reporting findings from all over the world. These articles have not been peer-reviewed and have hundreds of citations. There is a lot more research ongoing than would be suggested from the traditional peer-reviewed system. Voices and thoughts are being shared. No one is sure how to put the cat back in the bag –even when the pandemic ends. This might be good news for scholars of color.
The set of dust events has been crushing Cabo Verde and Senegal over the last 24 hours. The predicted large dust outbreak over Nigeria has begun and will worsen. Without the low-cost PM dust network that has been built over the last 2 years, we would be unaware of what was happening on the ground, just pictures, and satellite views. It is so critical during this period of COVID-19 for everyone to be aware of air quality. I am super thankful for Demba in Senegal, my colleagues at INMG and Uni-CV, and in Nigeria for helping to deploy and maintain the network. Of course, we still don’t have enough coverage but last year most of these stations did not exist.
February 17, Realtime PM2.5 concentrations across West Africa
The forecast continues to show heavy dust over the next in Senegal and the largest Bodele dust event will begin impacting Nigeria over the next few hours. Below are some pictures from this morning.
February 17: Dust from Kaolack, Senegal this morning (Courtesy of Dr. Moussa Gueye) – current PM2.5 concentration: 127 mg/m-3PM2.5 Values this morning at Madina Ndiatebe February 17February 17, Dakar Senegal (Courtesy Riad Kawar). Current PM 2.5 183 mg/m-3 (8: 52 EST)February 17th, Madina Ndiatebe – Northeastern Senegal (courtesy Mamadou Drame) Current PM2.5 360 mg/m-3 (8:00 EST)February 17, Praia Cabo Verde (courtesy Nicolau Araujo) Current PM2.5: 82 mg/m3 (8:50 EST)
Stay safe and cover up outside for dust and COVID-19. More dust to come in the days ahead.
Terra Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth on the morning of February 16. Dust depicted in Red.
This morning the largest dust outbreak in 2 years is occurring across the Sahara Desert. The eruption began yesterday morning in Algeria and has now expanded to four major dust sources in Algeria, Niger, and Chad, and possibly Mauritania today The dust from Algeria and Mali is expected to have a major effect on Senegal and Cabo Verde, likely closing some airports but bring very unhealthy air to millions of people in the next 48 hours.
Identified dust sources yesterday (Feb 15) and this morning (Feb 16) – slide to see.
The Air Quality is gotten considerably worst since last night with poor air quality in Northern Senegal. We expect this to worsen during the afternoon and tonight.
Air Quality index across West Africa at of 1345 UTC or 845 ESt
Big dust Event for Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea countries starting tonight.
The Bodele will come alive for the next 10 days or so, bringing the largest dust amounts into all of Nigeria by Thursday morning, impacting its 200 million inhabitants. The dust is expected to reach Lagos and the coastal zones. This dust will then settle in across Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Ivory Coast during the next 3-5 days. This is depicted in the Model forecast from last week.
Caption: PM2.5 WRF forecast from Friday, February 12
Extreme Caution during COVID-19 is required
Science is presenting mounting evidence that poor air quality makes COVID-19 spread faster and causes more serious forms of COVID. What we still don’t know is about the short-term exposure to high pollution. The poor air quality is likely to force more people indoors so please wear your mask when you go to indoor locations that are outside of your home.
Each year after the rains which provide farmers the necessary water to grow crops end, they begin burning their fields. There are multiple reasons, for example, to remove the waste products from the field or to put nutrients in the form of carbon back into the soils. However, the burning of fields also leads to poor air quality with small black carbon aerosols, carbon monoxide, NO2, and Ozone making for unhealthy air for anyone. The burning occurs over a very large region with smoke traveling for thousands of miles from east to West (Figure 1).
Thermal Signatures from Fires on January 25 2021 across West Africa
Saharan Dust Storms
This is also the time of year, when the Sahara Desert is active. When strong winds occur, the desert dust is lifted and driven into populated areas. (Figure 2). While you might think that desert dust is less dangerous than smoke, the current thinking is that desert dust kills more people in Africa than any other source. We think that leads to strokes, heart attacks and drives respiratory disease like Bronchitis, Pneumonia and Asthma leading to emergency room visits..
Figure 2. Large Winter sources of Desert Dust from the Sahara (December 24, 2016)
It is when the fires are combined with dust events and local pollution that we have very bad air quality event. So the big dust event in Figure 3 does not take into account pollution from the large megacities like Dakar, Accra or Lagos – which in sum might have 30 million people. The smallest of the dust or black carbon particles from fires or cars known as PM2.5 is what we worry about, because it can go deep into the lungs.
Figure 3. December 24 2016 with dust and fire locations.
COVID-19 and Poor Air Quality
In my last blog, we find that COVID-19 remained relatively low in West Africa but the second wave has arrived during dry season when the pollution levels are high. The current level of knowledge suggests that air pollution is linked to COVID-19. In high particulate matter (PM) regions, COVID-19 seriousness and mortality are greater and contains the dimension of environmental justice in communities of color in the United States. Results also show that COVID-19 transmission (R0) is higher in polluted areas where high long-term exposure of PM2.5 (composed sulfate, ammonium, and black carbon) aerosols exceeds healthy standards.
The primary challenge of linking the environment to disease in Africa is access to health and environmental data. The World Health Organization (WHO) makes daily COVID-19 data available even with limited testing in African countries but it is difficult to local data.
Air quality data is extremely sparse in Africa. Still, the use of low-cost sensors enables the monitoring particulate matter concentrations. Over the last year, we have deployed low-cost purple air sensors in Senegal, Cabo Verde, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, and Angola through international partnerships with my center AESEDA (Figure 4). These data can be used with daily COVID-19 data, satellite-based fire data , to examine air-pollution- COVID-19 relationships.
Figure 4. Purple Air Network in West Africa with AQI values (Tuesday, Feb 9, 2021).
Brief Analysis from 2020 in Angola, Nigeria and Senegal
Figure 5a shows the weekly COVID-19 cases and mortality for Nigeria, Senegal, and Angola. The first wave of COVID-19 new cases and deaths in Nigeria and Senegal occurred during the late NH spring and through the summer of 2020, while it was slightly delayed in Angola beginning in August and reaching its maximum values at the end of October. Biomass burning, which is a significant source of regional pollution and identified through thermal anomalies, occurs during the dry season, reaching the largest number of locations in Nigeria and Senegal during February (Figure 5b). In contrast, the biomass burning season begins in May, with the maximum number of fire locations found in August and November in Angola. Senegal and Nigeria also received dust intrusions during the January through March 2020 which we could have shown through Satellite Aerosol Optical depth but did not.
Figure 5 (a) Weekly new COVID cases and Deaths; (b) Fire Locations during 2020
Nigeria case study during November and December 2020
Nigeria has the largest population on the continent in Africa with more than 200 million people. It the largest economy in West Africa and one of the top oil exporters in the world but the wealth is not evenly distributed. Air pollution is a problem in Nigeria because of the large cities, industrial pollution which includes the oil industry, the large number of cars, biomass burning and dust incursions from the Desert. We have been fortunate to have partnership with the Center for Atmospheric Research which is led by my colleague Prof. Babatunde Rabiu. He has put up 10 stations across Nigeria, providing real-time data to the population. Thank God, the stations were in place for the dry season pollution.
Figure 6c November and December new cases and Deaths, 6d , daily pollution in Nigeria, Philadelphia PA and New York, NY. Dashed line is World Health Organization Limit.
Figure 6c shows that daily reported COVID-19 new cases and deaths in Nigeria between 1 November and 31 December 2020 show a significant rise in new cases after 1 December 2020, reaching more than 1700 new cases in late December, although there is variability in the daily reports; the number of new deaths also increases during the month of December.
At the same time, figure 6d shows unhealthy daily PM2.5 concentrations at locations across Nigeria in Kano (north), Abuja (central), and Delta State (south) during December. For reference we put in daily values for Philadelphia PA and New York city.
The values in these three cities increased throughout the month while COVID-19 cases were increasing. For reference, daily PM2.5 concentrations from New York City and Philadelphia show smaller concentrations during the period, although values at the selected site in NYC exceeded 80 mg-m-3 on one day. November and December average monthly PM2.5 concentrations are 2-4 times smaller in NYC and Philadelphia when compared to Nigeria cities.
During the last week of December, a large Bodele depression dust event transported large amounts of dust into Nigeria in as high pressure moved into Libya (Figure 7). Simultaneously, the number of fires within the country and smoke transported from the east continued to increase biomass burning aerosols. Together, very high PM2.5 concentrations were found throughout Nigeria.
Figure 7. Visible image of dust and figures (a, c,e) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) for identifying dust and fire particles (b, d, f) on Dec 26, 27 and 28 2020.
A light at the end of the tunnel or more hard days ahead?
I would love to say that I see an end in sight to the poor air quality but I cannot. We have learned this year, that when dust moves down to the coast of Nigeria and other Guinea countries, it is remains stuck much longer any model suggest. Take Osogbo Nigeria which is located in the South Central part of Nigeria (Figure 8). This year there has not been one day when the PM2.5 concentrations have been less than the WHO guidance of 25 mg-m-3.
Figure 8. Daily PM2.5 concentrations at Osogbo, Nigeria during 2021. Black line is the WHO Limit.
Given that the PM2.5 is likely to make COVID-19 more serious if you contract it, people have to do their best to mask up and not have too much exposure to people or pollution. I am sorry, if this blog was technical but sometimes y0u must use whatever you have at your disposal to identify threats to the population while assisting in understanding.
As you know this site is about Climate Justice which has the underlying premise that the Climate Crisis will be a lot worse if we don’t consider justice as the foundation for our actions. With the selection of Michael Regan to lead the EPA it is quite possible that Climate Justice will be the focus of the Climate Crisis.
I gave a seminar this afternoon (2/3/21) for the Penn State Earth System Science Center on Climate Justice. Unfortunately, most of the recording was lost. I made a second recording that brings out these issues. Check it out when you have free time.
For so many months, we have been focused on the United States and Europe as the Epicenters for the pandemic. However, now that the South African variant has been identified as a worldwide strain, South Africa has garnered attention. But what about the rest of the continent south of the Sahara? For the last few months, a group of researchers from Africa and the United States has been meeting to really examine air pollution and COVID-19. We noticed a ramp-up in COVID-19 numbers starting December and thought that maybe it was increasing pollution. That may have something to do with it but now we feel that the South African variant is in play and spreading across the continent.
Southern Africa new and cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths
Figure 1. COVID-19 new and cumulative cases in Southern African countries (1 Jan 2020- 29 Jan, 2021).
The five countries of South Africa, Namibia, Zambia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe show a rapid increase in new cases since late November 2020. It really doesn’t make sense given that it is summertime when you would expect more outside activity. So, I think that the environment may be discounted and the new variant which is contagious seems to be driving these cases. While the numbers of new cases seem to have peaked in Southern Africa, it appears to be surging in the other Zambia, Botswana and Zimbabwe.
Figure 2. COVID-19 new and cumulative deaths in Southern African countries (1 Jan 2020- 29 Jan 2021)
The new and cumulative death cases that have occurred in South Africa are more concerning because of the steepness of the curves. But notice that the cumulative death curves in Namibia and Zambia have the same look as South Africa, the rise in cumulative deaths are even steeper in Botswana and Zimbabwe (Figure 2).
West AfricaNEW AND CUMULATIVE COVID-19 CASES AND DEATHS
Given that West Africa is in its dry season when the worst air quality occurs, we thought an increase would occur in COVID-19 cases and deaths. That did start happening in November, but now it is accelerating which suggest that the new variant is now in place.
Figure 3. West African COVID-19 new and cumulative cases 1 Jan 2020-29 Jan 2021
It is clear the that first wave in West Africa began during the rainy season (April-September), but the second wave is much more aggressive than the first (Figure 3). In fact if you compare the cumulative curves with the Southern Africa (Figure 1) curves they look alike, except that they begin just a little later. Cabo Verde has a different shape which bears watching.
While the numbers of deaths are lower than South Africa, they on par with other South African nations and on the uptick. The steepness of the cumulative death rates in Senegal, where they have nearly doubled since November is worrying. Overall the similarity of the curves suggest that the South African variant has been in West and Southern Africa for at least the last few weeks.
So it’s not as bad as the United States, why are you worked up?
There are multiple reasons to be worked up over:
The number of test in most of West Africa are too low. If this highly transmissible variant of COVID-19 is running around, governments have to move fast to ramp up testing so that it can be identified and slowed down.
The test are still t0o expensive for most people to take, costing nearly 100 dollars in some places.
The health infrastructure in most of West and Southern Africa cannot withstand too many cases because of the lack of ventilators, ICU beds, doctors and nurses.
There is a distrust of the government, so many rumors about COVID-19 not being real is floating in the air.
The likelihood of the vaccine reaching Africa (outside of South Africa) will not occur until the middle or last part of 2021. This means that only behavior can slow down the disease. Even then people will need to be motivated to get the vaccine.
The numbers of people who have died or have come down with COVID is probably significantly underestimated. The article in the newspaper (Washington Post) confirms that excessive deaths are large in South Africa.. Most notable during its first and second waves (Figure 5).
Figure 5 Excess and COVID-19 reported deaths (Washington Post, Jan 26)
At this point, Africa needs to shields up. This means that every person should be wearing a mask. Let us hope that the variant will not cause too much suffering but the trends do not bode well. Especially worrying is West Africa, where air quality is very poor because of dust and biomass burning (next blog…promise). Based on the latest release from the Africa CDC.. the South African variant has arrived — Red Alert.
Iota is making landfall this evening as a Cat 5 storm, with an estimated pressure of 918 mb. From a meteorological point of view, it is a beautiful storm with spiral rainbands and a well-defined eye.
Evolution of Hurricane Iota (NOAA)
However, the IR presentation of the storm shows that the power of the storm, with very cold cloud tops, bringing heavy rain into much of Nicaragua at this time, with the eyewall soon to pass over the coastline bring 15-20 foot storm surge and devastating winds.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 07 OR_ABI-L1b-RadM2-M6C07_G16_s20203220230497_e20203220230566_c20203220231003.nc3.9 micron movie of IOTA before landfall
We can only keep positive thoughts and hope for the best to the people tonight.
This Monday, we woke up to a vaccine that is more than 94% effective against COVID-19, and President Trump refusal to concede to President-Elect Biden. Yet, Category 5 hurricane Iota should be in the headlines as it barrels towards Nicaragua with a pressure of 918 mb and sustained winds of 160 mph. By itself, it would be expected to cause as much damage as hurricane Mitch, but just two weeks ago, Category 4 hurricane Eta slammed into the same region.
Hurricane ETA at land fall November 3 ,2020
Increasing Intensity at landfall — a sign of the future??
Since Hurricane Harvey, Irma, Michael, Maria, and Dorian and how fast they intensified, I have wondered if this is how the future will play out as anthropogenic greenhouse gases warm the oceans. One is often hesitant to say that storms will rapidly intensify as the Earth continues to warm because the science behind rapid intensification is still not clear. However, this year we have seen a number of hurricanes intensifying before making landfall. But given the potential loss of life and property, the conversation is likely to shift for coastal communities, especially in Louisiana. Yes, it is expensive to evacuate coastlines and people feel annoyed and worried about doing so. But, the time will come when coastal communities will have to ponder the unthinkable- moving away from the coast.
For example, Hurricane Iota has gone from a CAT 1 to CAT 4 in about 48 hours. It was pretty disorganized on November 14 but organized itself yesterday in a low shear and warm water environment
IR movie of Hurricane Iota (November, 14-16) from CIRAVisible 1 km movie of Hurricane Iota (November 14-16) CIRA
I don’t think that it will be some light-switch that will cause this to happen, but probably a series of natural and social factors. The natural factors include coastal flooding, hurricanes, and sea-level rise. The social factors involve safety, rebuilding, and insurance companies that do not want to insure massive losses. In countries that are low-income, the insurance component will matter in low-lying cities but many communities, such as fishing communities may have no choice in the matter. When you have situations, like to ones that happened in Louisiana, Nicaragua, Honduras, and small island states in the Atlantic and around the world, the unthinkable must be pondered by everyone.
Coastal Resilience and Sustaining communities
After Iota and Eta, not only should there be thoughts about how the resilience of coastal communities, but also the often forgotten issue of sustainability. When these monster hurricanes make landfall, they destroy so much leaving waste and debris everywhere. Some of this will go back to the ocean, but lots will go to landfills. That poses an environmental justice problem for poor and communities of color which have a long history of fighting landfills, that is located near their communities.
Debris in Louisiana after a landfalling hurricane
Look don’t get me wrong about the presidential race, I care but it’s over. We have to move on. The short term pressure point it COVID-19 and how to protect the population before the vaccine is available. With more than 11 million cases and 250,000 deaths, we have to admit that the situation is dire at present in the US. The reliance on a vaccine instead of behavior and the vaccine is a flaw of a free society where choice seems first. Sometimes, you just have to take a clue from the data, go with it, and accept that freedom and responsibility go together.
Rapid intensification is a major challenge that should have been a mid-21st century issue but looks like we’re early and need to rethink coastal resilience and sustainability.
Stay safe and keep Central America in your thoughts and prayers.
“In West Philadelphia born and raised on the playground…” Every time I see Will Smith or someone asks me where I am from this song rings in my head. Philly is my home, no matter where I travel to or live. I carry the Philly swag, which some people say is roughneck but I am not talking about that stuff. I am talking about the love, grit, brotherhood, and fight that Philly sisters and brothers bring to in so many situations. Whenever I am traveling internationally and someone says that they are from Philly or South Jersey there is immediate brotherhood. I can’t even explain to you how many times this has happened. The strangest time was in the middle of the South Atlantic at Ascension Island during a scientific field campaign where there were only 800 people on the island, and the only way to reach this island was by military airplane or ship. I was asking a guy about the island and asked where he was from? He said Philly – West Oak Lane. I also found out that the commander on the Island was from Camden. This tripped me out because to get to Ascension Island, I took a plane from Philly to Iceland, then England and took a research flight which stopped in the Gambia, flew across the Equator, and landed at Ascension Island.
Ascension Island
Philly in the News
Philly has the notorious reputation for being bad, like throwing snowballs at Santa Claus at the Eagles game, but more recently the city unrest after the killing of George Floyd and the killing of Walter Wallace Jr. by the police leading to outrage and destruction across the city. The 45th president of the United States recently said in his debate with President-Elect Biden ” Bad things happen in Philadelphia.”
But good things also happen in Philadelphia. Let’s just start with the election and Philadelphia helping to decide the election for the nation.
Saturday, November 7 with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer calling the election after votes in Philadelphia
Say what you want but my brothers and sisters went out to vote and it paid off. So a couple of things about the vote. The lines were long on election day (November) with people waiting hours to vote. But, many people sent in mail-in ballots by the bundles, respecting COVID-19 which has been rising at a frantic rate. Probably people who never voted before realized the importance of the moment and the consequence for future generations. Philadelphia is a struggling city with the highest poverty rate in the state, and we still put our fist up when there is injustice, and you gotta fight.
During the 1920s through 1950s Philly was a safe haven for people coming up from the South who needed cover from Jim Crow terrorism. Both of my parents came to Philly and my dad and many of my uncles went to fight in the second world war. These Philly cats when overseas to fight people that never knew but answered to call to serve the nation. My dad served as a squadron leader in the 653 Quartermaster Truck Company in the German Campaign –the dreaded battle of the Bulge (Ardennes GO 40 WD 45) along with the Rhineland and Central Europe campaigns in Germany, received a purple heart, other metals, and a plate in the head after being injured. He was able to buy a house to raise a family in West Philly–known as the black bottom, work as a welder at the Navy Yard, and watch the neighborhood fall apart with massive white flight to the suburbs. The war injury, supporting six children and the stress of the neighborhood caught up to him causing a massive brain hemorrhage and death before me and my twin turned 10. But the Philly fight that he and mom, uncles, aunts, and friends still lives within me.
The new war is around social justice, racism, police brutality, fighting inequity, empowering communities, fighting climate change, helping to nurture and secure the current generations and future ones. Just as in the past and last Saturday, November, 7, the people from Philly are up for the fight. The true source of our fight is based on justice, historical inequity sister and brotherly
Happy Veteran’s Day. Never stop fighting Philly and keep your swag!!
