African Easterly Waves are active; potential activity for Cabo Verde over the next 10 days

This morning, when I saw rainfall over Northern Mali, I thought that this is certainly a strange wet season. Southern Mali, yes but northern Mali is the Sahara Desert.

As I mentioned in an earlier blog, the African Easterly Jet is very far north, and based on WRF analysis is generating new disturbances at 10000 feet off the coast of Africa in addition to the normal 3 to 5-day waves the move across all of West Africa. All of this adds up to a busy next few weeks with these disturbances leading to potential tropical cyclone activities

NHC 2 PM Tropical weather Outlook (image: NOAA)

All of this is adding onto the already active Tropical Atlantic. A long-range 14-day WRF forecast (initiated on Saturday Aug 29) shows westward-moving waves at 10000 feet (700 hPa) with 5-6 waves over the 2-week period.

WRF August 29-Sept 12 time-Longitude meridional winds across West Africa

Interesting Forecast for Cabo Verde

As the National Hurricane Center has noted, there is the possibility of an AEW developing once it leaves the coast of Africa in the next few days. The WRF model depicts the system impacting Cabo Verde at the end of the week but it does not look like a very strong storm. We will see.

WRF depicted Sea Level pressure and Max reflectivity (August 29-Sep 3).

The main disturbance that the NHC mentions is likely to combine with a disturbance that is forecast to be off the Coast of Guinea-Bissau tomorrow as depicted by the 850 hPa.

WRF August 29-Sep 12 850 hPa vorticity with cyclonic disturbance being depicted in red.

The model also suggests that the relatively weak disturbance off the coast of Africa gains vorticity (Spin) from the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) to its north. The AEJ remains strong throughout the next 14 days with disturbances being generated to the south of the Jet. There is also strong flow from the Atlantic to feed the waves.

WRF 29 August-12 Sept 700 millbar African Easterly Jet depicted in blue and purple.

An even strong Disturbance in one week exiting Africa (Sep 5-6)

As you may have noticed in the videos, a very strong disturbance at 5000 and 10000 feet develops at the end of the WRF forecast. While this is a long-range projection we need to watch it. The Canadian and ECMWF models are picking up this disturbance in today’s forecast (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).

The WRF depicts a tropical cyclone impacting Cabo Verde around the 7th of September. Either way, this next week is going to be active in the Caribbean and Atlantic. Stay prepared.

WRF 29 August-12 September Sea Level Pressure

Climate Change and Racism

A few weeks after the brutal killing of George Floyd, a reporter from the Washington Post contacted me as she was putting together a story on Climate change and Racism. She took a few of the lines that I sent her by email. Here is the full text that was sent. ON JUNE 7, 2020.

“Hi Sarah.  Yes, the situation is very exhausting but I have been very happy to see young people in particular protest to the injustice.  These same young people and their children are going to face a warmer climate, more extremes and disruptions to their daily lives from climate change. “

I teach a Freshman Seminar course called Climate Change, Climate Justice and Frontline communities.  In this course, I discuss how we got here, the role of past injustices and why frontline communities continue to grow. A couple of quick points


1.) Racism is inexorably climate change. This began more than four centuries ago when black people were forcibly removed from the continent to work and die as slaves. Much of the revenue from this free labor went to elevate Europe and the United States and provided the recourses for the industrial revolution.  Even after Slavery was abolished, the removal of resources from Africa, provided the raw materials for the Industrial revolution. For example, rubber, peanut oil and palm oil was needed for the machinery in the 1800s in France, Britain, and other location. Slavery led to chaos in Africa, which human capacity and materials extracted and, ultimately it is the poverty that we see today. The extraction of fossil fuels and other mineral resources in Africa promotes environmental devastation for the people who live near these sites, and often the benefits are not realized by the average person. Ultimately, the extractive process puts more CO2 into the atmosphere.

2.) Communities of color do not have the capacity to offset climate change. The inequity that has been created is realized when we discuss environmental justice, where dumpsites, power plants, highways, and other pollution sources are created without concern or input from communities of color. This situation has worsened under the Trump administration.

3. Globally the future is dim around climate change. When natural disasters such as floods or tropical cyclones strike communities of color, the impacts are longer-lasting, and resilience is questionable because of inequity.  Unless inequity is addressed now, future impacts from climate change will disable many communities of color.

4. The education system has failed people of color. In the geosciences, typically less than 5 % of the field is African American. This inequity is not related to the fact that black students are not interested in geoscience or climate sciences, but there are severe issues of access to higher education. The racism associated with migration in the north or limited funding to public education in the south has destabilized education. Black students from certain locations, such as my neighborhood in Philadelphia, may have limited access to science and math courses needed for college and are unlikely to have role models who can offset these differences. These students need space to develop their ideas and to be inspired. Even if these students making it the university, they are not likely to find black faculty members to support thoughts, goals, and aspirations. Consequently, the pipeline narrows more and more due to racism.

5. Universities in the US and around the world do not provide the necessary knowledge or services needed to support communities that will be impacted by climate change. Critical and important knowledge from university researchers is directed toward journals that may not be able to warn or apply critical knowledge to communities of color in a reasonable time or at a level where impacts can be easily understood.  Furthermore, the current review system of journals and funding makes it more likely that the work of people of color could be rejected or not funded, potentially removing important knowledge from the discipline.

6. There are no historically black colleges or universities (HBCUs) in the united states that have a climate science program.  HBCUs provide a nurturing environment for young scholars to thrive without dealing with the inherent racism in many pubic institutions.  HBCUs have the possibility of understanding how black communities will be impacted because of vested interest. The research undertaken by these departments or programs, if they existed, would likely have a different focus on climate sciences. They would need to focus on the physical and human dimensions of climate change. If this trend continues to exist, the efforts will be left to individual scientists or pubic institutions that may not have a vested interest in the community outside of publications and funding opportunities.  

7. Globally, there are large disparities in the observations of the environment. My work focuses on West Africa, and at present, we do not have enough ground observations to determine trends linked to climate change, coastlines are not monitored to understand rising sea levels, air pollution levels are not known, impacts from flooding or heat waves are known. Ultimately, we cannot protect vulnerable populations in Africa or its diaspora from the hazards of today or tomorrow.  

All Black Lives Matter.  

Police Justice, Climate Justice, and Hurricane Laura – The perfect storm

It feels like the movie called “The Perfect Storm” because many things are happening at once: Hurricane Laura,  COVID-19, the opening of universities, the RNC after the DNC, and finally the vicious shooting of Jacob Blake.  I don’t know how any sane person can stay focused on anything like work or even writing a blog.  I just pray that God and the ancestors will not allow this situation to persist and will protect the innocent because the police don’t seem to be able to deal with that responsibility.

Hurricane Laura, Wednesday Evening, August 26, 2020.

Since Hurricane Mitch and Georges back in the day, every time I see an eye like the one associated with Hurricane Laura  I feel fear for the people on the ground.  This fear has only increased since Katrina but new named Storms come to the surface of my mind, like Matthew, Michael, Dorian, Maria, Harvey, and Irma.  While I know that we can’t control a hurricane, but we may be influencing it through the burning of fossil fuels leading to warmer ocean temperatures –the fuel of hurricanes.  For people of color, this is another series of threats that many have faced their entire lifetime from systemic racism, harassment, job security, educational access, and police violence.  

This storm is different, because of COVID-19.  Many have mentally and emotionally struggled over the last 6 months, but with this impending storm, a new struggle emerges.  Shelters must take in fewer people because of COVID-19 while power, transportation, and communication will be impacted and the money required to recover will be hard to come by for many because so many people are not working.  Will the government help and not play politics?  Nature through the Coronavirus, a warming Climate and now Hurricane Laura is trying to get our attention.  

Uncertainty about the impacts of climate change, Hurricane Laura, COVID-19, and the police violence toward black people make for “the Perfect Storm”  on August 26, 2020– what I fear is that a new  “Perfect Storm” sits on tomorrow’s horizon for us, our children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren.