For so many months, we have been focused on the United States and Europe as the Epicenters for the pandemic. However, now that the South African variant has been identified as a worldwide strain, South Africa has garnered attention. But what about the rest of the continent south of the Sahara? For the last few months, a group of researchers from Africa and the United States has been meeting to really examine air pollution and COVID-19. We noticed a ramp-up in COVID-19 numbers starting December and thought that maybe it was increasing pollution. That may have something to do with it but now we feel that the South African variant is in play and spreading across the continent.
Southern Africa new and cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths
The five countries of South Africa, Namibia, Zambia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe show a rapid increase in new cases since late November 2020. It really doesn’t make sense given that it is summertime when you would expect more outside activity. So, I think that the environment may be discounted and the new variant which is contagious seems to be driving these cases. While the numbers of new cases seem to have peaked in Southern Africa, it appears to be surging in the other Zambia, Botswana and Zimbabwe.
The new and cumulative death cases that have occurred in South Africa are more concerning because of the steepness of the curves. But notice that the cumulative death curves in Namibia and Zambia have the same look as South Africa, the rise in cumulative deaths are even steeper in Botswana and Zimbabwe (Figure 2).
West Africa NEW AND CUMULATIVE COVID-19 CASES AND DEATHS
Given that West Africa is in its dry season when the worst air quality occurs, we thought an increase would occur in COVID-19 cases and deaths. That did start happening in November, but now it is accelerating which suggest that the new variant is now in place.
It is clear the that first wave in West Africa began during the rainy season (April-September), but the second wave is much more aggressive than the first (Figure 3). In fact if you compare the cumulative curves with the Southern Africa (Figure 1) curves they look alike, except that they begin just a little later. Cabo Verde has a different shape which bears watching.
While the numbers of deaths are lower than South Africa, they on par with other South African nations and on the uptick. The steepness of the cumulative death rates in Senegal, where they have nearly doubled since November is worrying. Overall the similarity of the curves suggest that the South African variant has been in West and Southern Africa for at least the last few weeks.
So it’s not as bad as the United States, why are you worked up?
There are multiple reasons to be worked up over:
- The number of test in most of West Africa are too low. If this highly transmissible variant of COVID-19 is running around, governments have to move fast to ramp up testing so that it can be identified and slowed down.
- The test are still t0o expensive for most people to take, costing nearly 100 dollars in some places.
- The health infrastructure in most of West and Southern Africa cannot withstand too many cases because of the lack of ventilators, ICU beds, doctors and nurses.
- There is a distrust of the government, so many rumors about COVID-19 not being real is floating in the air.
- The likelihood of the vaccine reaching Africa (outside of South Africa) will not occur until the middle or last part of 2021. This means that only behavior can slow down the disease. Even then people will need to be motivated to get the vaccine.
- The numbers of people who have died or have come down with COVID is probably significantly underestimated. The article in the newspaper (Washington Post) confirms that excessive deaths are large in South Africa.. Most notable during its first and second waves (Figure 5).
At this point, Africa needs to shields up. This means that every person should be wearing a mask. Let us hope that the variant will not cause too much suffering but the trends do not bode well. Especially worrying is West Africa, where air quality is very poor because of dust and biomass burning (next blog…promise). Based on the latest release from the Africa CDC.. the South African variant has arrived — Red Alert.