Tonight, we sit at the edge of a tense next few days that will have implications for the short (6 months) and near term future (5-10 years). The US presidential election is divided, polarized, and potentially violent. While we are all concerned about which votes are counted, voter intimidation, and when the final winner will be declared, a major hurricane is bearing down on Nicaragua and Honduras. This hurricane has 150 mph winds (Cat 4) and continues to intensify. This morning it was a 90 MPH storm and may reach Category 5 status before landfall. Before I continue let me take you back in time to the last millennium (1998).
Hurricane Mitch
As a young professor at Penn State, I watched this storm and was awed as it made its way into Honduras and was like OMG.
Hurricane Mitch killed at least 10,000 people during the few days that is moved across central America. Winds reach an incredible 160 mph and many feet of rain fell as it passed across Central America leading to mudslides. The storm also emerged back into the Atlantic as a tropical depression after massive damage and fatalities. This hurricane called an incomprehensible amount of suffering and grief.
Back to Nov 2020
Not only has this been a record-tying season for the total number of storms, but I have never seen so many storms rapidly intensify as they head into land-masses. Last week it was Zeta slamming into NOLA, and the models all under-predicted the intensity of this event. There are probably areas that still may not have power. While the science of hurricane intensification is still developing, the warm water and ripe conditions (low shear) have made the prediction of tropical cyclones more uncertain. Just one day ago, no model predicted that Eta would become a major category storm and approach Cat 5 status. This has major implications for protecting the population at landfall.
Eta is forecasted to make landfall overnight with a devastating punch. with widespread impacts including Jamaica. Check out what the National Hurricane is saying
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas. El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm) This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding are also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Note that the storm may re-emerge in the Caribbean Sea . So while we will all be engrossed with US politics, please pay attention to the tropics next week.
Nov 3 — Vote
If we don’t mitigate the effects of climate change by cutting greenhouse gases, expect more rapidly intensifying storms. The Trump Platinum plan would be wiped out in one or two Eta storms. His plan is paper thin for black and brown communities that have suffered for decades from pollution emitted by dirty power plants, extraction sites and refineries in coastal zones and all throughout America. He can never produce the manufacturing jobs that we need because he forgets about institutional racism, in addition oil jobs do not employ many people and coal jobs cause black lung and destroy the environment. Jobs from renewable energy provides the best chance for employing young people of color for long periods of time to addressing the climate crisis. Most importantly, his plan does not consider the current impacts that are impacting poor and communities of color from extreme events that are likely caused by anthropogenic climate change. The one item that starts the action to protect the beautyful ones not yet born –the Paris agreement, is never going to be signed if he gets reelected — he said that, not me. I just reiterating the message.
See yall tomorrow. Be safe and remember the ballot is the opposite of the bullet.