This morning I am moderating a session on extreme events, which can be watched live at 10:30 EDT (Wednesday, October 7 – https://allatlanticsummit2020.org/live/extreme-weather) in the All-Atlantic Summit (https://allatlanticsummit2020.org/) from Portugal, from Cascais near Lisbon, which are both beautiful cities but quite vulnerable to coastal storms. My center AESEDA (aeseda.psu.edu) is co-hosting this virtual meeting which was to be held in Philadelphia. This summit is focused on the Blue-Economy across the Atlantic and all presentations are available live stream or you can watch them later.
It is the romantic allure of the sea along with commerce that has drawn billions of people worldwide to live in large coastal cities. And while you get a fantastic feeling standing near the sea, you should also know it can be a source of natural hazards and will be the source of a persistent danger because of sea-level rise, now and for future generations.
As of today, we have experienced 26 tropical disturbances, with two systems (Gamma and Delta) forming over the last 10 days. We still have 50 days left in the Atlantic Hurricane season and this will most likely be a record season for Tropical cyclones (27 in 2005). As Major Hurricane Delta impacts the Yucatan later today and the Gulf Coast on Friday, I wonder if all of this talk about coastal resilience is for nothing?
Should we retreat from the coasts or build stronger structures?
Most of us would go with the second answer because as humans we feel that we can always do better. However, the billions of dollars lost over the last 20 years suggest that this might not be the best strategy. The other often overlooked issue is one of equity and justice. There are large disparities in wealth along class, gender, ethnic and racial boundaries. Everyone, cannot afford to rebuild nor can they afford to lose all that they have worked for. Finally, in some locations, such as small island states (Caribbean, Bermuda, Azores, Cabo Verde), the vulnerability cannot be reduced for major hurricanes as we saw with Hurricanes Maria, Irma and Dorian.
A participant at the conference said that retreat is not the worse thing and I tend to agree with him. He was referring to flooding but there are some locations that will flood over and over, no matter what you do. You cannot build resilience in these areas and to move people from the threat seems like the most responsible action.
It won’t get any easier or better for future generations living in coastal zones
Warming oceans, increasing coastal populations, rising sea levels all point to disasters of epic proportions during the coming decades and centuries. Let’s go through each of these carefully.
- Warming Oceans. As the oceans warm, it evaporates more putting more water into the atmosphere. A warmer atmosphere from climate change can also hold more water vapor. This is most likely to lead to more flooding when tropical cyclones form. Warmer oceans also drive stronger hurricanes because it is the conversion of water vapor to liquid rain or frozen ice (very high up), that provides the release of latent heat which drives stronger thunderstorms and updrafts in tropical cyclones. This year we have seen marine heatwaves along the East Coasts of the US and tropical systems were stronger when passing through these areas. By mid-century, all of the oceans will be much warmer than the preindustrial period. Not a good look at all coming.
- Sea Level Rise. This poses the greatest long-term threat in my opinion. If you are free today, Watch today’s (Wednesday) on sea-level rise (https://allatlanticsummit2020.org/live/sea-level-rise) at 12 noon EDT (1600 UTC). Dr. Richard Alley, one of the top glacier scientists in the world will show that the large ice sheets are in a state of decay and could pose a serious threat for the next few hundred years potentially in the next few decades. The threats have shifted from thermal expansion from a warmer ocean to the melting of Greenland and now to the potential collapse of Thwaites glacier which raises sea level by 10 feet. Even if this does not happen now, it will happen this decade leaving many coastal communities unlivable.
- More intense Natural Hazards and damage
Natural hazards such as hurricanes or floods have always posed a threat to coastal populations, but there is a multiplier effect in play today. This multiplier effect will increase in the future with warmer oceans, higher atmospheric water vapor amounts and higher sea levels. The current hurricane season suggests that people should begin to think about their living environment relative to natural hazards, if not for themselves for their children.
Do we have a choice but to live with what is happening?
We have a choice, but time is running out. We must hold each other accountable for limiting greenhouse gas concentrations. How can we do that?
- Reduce your consumption. The more you consume the more energy that is required to make those goods and services and hence more greenhouse gas emissions.
- Try to be an energy-efficient person.... Turn your lights off, weatherize your house, get solar panels..make electric cars affordable, and drive them…
- Educate each other about the threats that we are facing. We should have answers when people ask us about the destruction caused by flooding or hurricanes.
- Hold your leaders accountable. President Trump has put the United States in an isolated position by withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement. The US must re-enter this agreement if we have any chance of working globally to reduce the biggest threat of the 21st century across the globe.
Make a choice about coastal resilience
We can’t have the cake and eat it too in the case of Coastal Resilience. The evidence points to a continued loss of coastal resilience at present and while we can’t stop it, we can slow it down. The only way to do that is to MITIGATE greenhouse gases. This is a collective action of the people. Support politicians who support the future of your children and grandchildren. It’s not just about us !!
Save the date Oct, 7 2055.. for a beautiful morning and breakfast with your grandchildren.
Caio, Chau, Tchau.