Over the last year, we have crossed the global mean threshold of 1.5C as a limit set by the Paris Agreement to limit dangerous climate change. The science has been very clear and there is no uncertainty — we must cut greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, Methane, N2O) in order to limit the warming and protect future generations. We have put more than one Trillion tons of CO2 in the atmosphere since the 18th century which can only accumulate in the atmosphere because its lifetime exceeds those of humans (100-300 years).
Presidential candidate Trump does not want to pursue this pathway because his focus is on the present, so we should expect accelerating CO2 emissions from the US. Presidential candidate Harris has been working to reduce CO2 emissions, but there has been a mixed message about the present and future emissions, in part because of political pressure and past practices. If VP Harris wants to address the climate crisis, there will have to be less stress on fossil fuel jobs, such as fracking and on-shore/off-shore gas/oil and put more focus on the creation of jobs from the renewables markets. When people think about oil production, what comes to mind is OPEC and Saudi Arabia. But, the US is now the largest producer of oil making it a significant greenhouse gas contributor.
Furthermore, the number of permits, for drilling has increased under the Biden administration. We know that if Presidential candidate Trump wins, this will only accelerate over time as he wants to get “liquid gold”, which is really “liquid poison” to many communities and future generations, out of the ground.
From the perspective of young people and those not yet born, what is happening seems confusing and has hypocrisy written all over it. The foundation of the issue is the “tyranny of the contemporary”, where we worry about today’s issues only: inflation, interest rates, employment, jobs reports, savings, credit scores, when can I take my next vacation, and how can I live my best life now. We are essentially discounting the lives of those in the global south, poor communities, people of color, the youngest people on the planet today, and those not yet born, including our grandchildren who will face the worst of climate change.
Yet, we have tools informing us (policymakers) on what we need to do in order to limit the climate crisis, to limit tipping points and to protect those who will be here after we are gone. Scholar and scientist Dr. Warren M. Washington, who passed away on October 18, 2024 https://www.fairmountfuneralhome.com/obituaries/Warren-Washington?obId=33523184 was one of those unique individuals who helped to develop the tools that provide us guidance on our actions today. In addition, he helped to foster at least the last two generations of black and brown atmospheric and climate scientists who are working in universities, government, broadcast meteorology, and private industry.
Warren was born in Portland Oregon, and received his PhD from Penn State University (where I currently work) in 1964. He was hired by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder Colorado, and began to develop NCAR’s first General Circulation Models (GCMs) to simulate the climate of Earth. Within a decade, there were numerous GCMs, including NOAA, NASA and UCLA in the United States and others around the world. This was remarkable, given that the number of black PhD atmospheric scientists in the World could be counted on one hand (Charles Anderson, Godwin Obasi, Warren Washington). Warren went on to be inducted into numerous societies, was the first AMS president, received the National Medal of Science, and advised five US presidents.
Warren was a master craftsman, always working to include the other components of the climate system – the oceans, sea ice, greenhouse gases and making the model more efficient so that it could be run for longer and in more realistic manners. For example, the original models used only fixed sea surface temperatures to represent the world’s oceans. Warren and his team improved the ocean representation to that of a swamp (water source), then mixed layer (water source and heat capacity), and finally a fully dynamical ocean. There was a similar process that he used for sea ice, which was initially only based on thermodynamic and not linked to the ocean circulation. These advances took several decades, and involved team building across sub-disciplines and the advancement of parallel computing.
Here is an excerpt from Warren’s 1986 book which was read at his funeral.
Excerpts from An Introduction to Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling , Warren Washington & Claire L. Parkinson
“For centuries individuals have dreamed of being able to understand how the climate system works and from that understanding being able to forecast and perhaps even modify the future climate. This distant goal has become more approachable as a result of the invention of the modern electronic computer in the mid-twentieth century. With the computer, it is now possible to solve numerically many of the equations encapsulating the physical laws that govern climate. This provides us with exciting new possibilities … Improved understanding of the climate system could have substantial impact on the economic well-being of the nations of the world. …. Therefore, once numerical models reached the stage where the simulations reproduced major features of the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice, a logical next step was for researchers to begin using the models to simulate conditions other than those existent at the present time, such as paleoclimates or possible future climates affected by increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas amounts and aerosols. … Numerical simulations should continue to increase our understanding of the Earth’s climate system and provide insight into many factors that may influence climate change. As the models improve, the reliability of their results should increase. The potential benefits for mankind are multifold, as more accurate prediction of future states over both short and long time periods should assist planning decisions in many areas of human activity. One of the real merits of such models is that they allow the quantitative evaluation of possible changes. Mankind will need to make choices about how to respond to climate change, and these choices can be aided by enhanced modeling efforts.”
There are now many clips and recordings of Warren speaking about the state of climate science and climate change that he helped to foster as a scientist, scholar, and voice for black and brown people.
Why is this a Climate Crisis again?
The primary greenhouse gases are Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4) and Nitrous oxide (N2O). Both are increasing at alarming rates. When Warren wrote his book, CO2 concentrations were 348 parts per million by volume (ppmv) and today they are 424 ppmv. CH4 concentrations were 1687 part per billion by volume (ppbv) and today 1927 ppbv.
Temperatures over the last 12 months are more than 1.5 C above preindustrial values.
Arctic sea ice which Warren took a real interest in with Claire Parkinson has decreased substantially. It is having a negative effect on the polar ecosystem (life and people).
Droughts and Floods
As of the end of October, most of the United States was experiencing some level of drought. The causes remain unclear, but heat domes seem to be related and during this fall, the Jet remains north of its position, with very few weather systems moving from west to east.
At the same time, floods have also increased with heavy rain in South and North Carolina this year. In Spain, last week more than 200 people were killed because of floods.
Hurricanes
Two Category 5 storms impacted the United States this year. Hurricane Helene made landfall as a category 5 in Florida, but the greatest devastation and loss of life occurred in Western North Carolina where floods destroyed towns and people are still recovering today.
A few weeks later, Hurricane Milton reached sustained wind speeds of 180 MPH while in the Gulf of Mexico but weakened to a Category 2-3 at landfall, sparing many areas from devastating destruction, but many people were still affected by the storm. More than 100 tornadoes were reported in Florida and linked to Milton.
The sum of these events should trigger something to the average person – Change has come.
Warren Washington increased the capacity to fight the Climate Crisis
Warren’s mentoring of students of color over the last few decades has significantly changed the field of atmospheric sciences. Warren was the first scientist of color to be the president of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and now there have been several, including Dr. Marshall Shepherd.
Warren played an important role in fostering many scientists of color in government, academia, research, and industry. From our perspective, Warren was our North Star, guiding us through unknown terrain towards safety in an uncertain field, where we felt isolated most of the time. Because of his mentoring, we survived and eventually thrived. This list includes Dr. Marshall Shepherd (UGA), Dr. Vernon Morris (ASU), Dr. Arlene Laing (CMO), Dr. John Cortinas (NOAA), Dr. Everette Joseph (Director NCAR), Dr. Belay Demoz (UMBC), Dr. Marilyn Raphael (UCLA), Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux (State Climatologist of Vermont), Dr. Kevin Petty, myself and many others. Through his mentoring, we were able to mentor a second generation of scientists and many are now moving into successful mid-careers.
If you watch this video, Warren explains that to increase students of color, academic programs must be deliberate and long-lasting to increase representation in the field. At the undergraduate level, Jackson State University has played that role and at the graduate level, Howard University has played the role. At last, years AMS there was a 25th anniversary for the Howard University Program in Atmospheric Sciences program (HUPAS). The outcome of this program was visible, with many of its graduates working in private, government, and academic settings.
A pivotal decision and road ahead for Students and Faculty of color
There are two items, that are of concern to the legacy of Dr. Warren Washington
- The Supreme Court Ruling of last year. Race is no longer permissible in admissions at US universities. This has the potential to make an already meager number of Black, Hispanic, and Native American students in atmospheric and geosciences decrease further. Admissions officers and faculty can if choose they look away from the inequity that has existed in this country for hundreds of years and instead look at meritocracy. In addition, the anti-DEI movement across the country aims to remove any scholarships that include race, even if the donor wants it to go to students of color. The university will say that such a practice is not compliant with US laws. There is also an effort to remove any effort to hire faculty members of color, with some recent efforts to sue deans who pursue such a path. This flies in the face of what Warren suggested to increase diversity in the field.
- The upcoming election. While VP Harris needs to be nudged to mitigate carbon emissions, former president Trump will turn the hands of time back and stop mitigation efforts (he can’t do anything about IRA efforts). He would not do anything to address the need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions ASAP in order to limit future warming. In addition, he will resist any DEI efforts at the national level and empower states to do more the get rid of DEI efforts in the public and private sectors. Finally, his goal of privatizing government services (such as the National Weather Service) and cutting the government is very dangerous at a time with disasters are increasing in frequency. Such an act would lead to layoffs for many people of color who have dedicated their lives in service to the United States.
Closing remarks
The last five years leading up to Warren’s transition in October have been remarkable. We have honored Warren while he was alive with the Warren Washington Symposium at Penn State, Warren won the Tyler prize in 2019 and there is now a building on campus named after him.
At Warren’s burial site and later in Warren’s office I felt his absence. I wondered if it all comes down to honoring the sacred and silent space of Warren. That sadness lingers within me, but I know that it is not the truth. Warren has left his legacy, with his beautiful children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren.
As for the field, we are sad but thankful for Warren’s mentoring and growing our community. We will follow Warren’s practice and continue to grow, advance knowledge, and protect our communities.
This struggle is not over, and we owe Warren thanks for giving us the tools and will to press forward. We are part of something bigger…
We will miss you father, brother, friend, and mentor.
Warren, you are physically gone but will always be our Champion.
Warren thanks for being my research mentor and advisor for the last 35 years. You never led me wrong and were too kind. Your spirit can fly with the ancestors. We will look out for Mary.
Peace and Love