I have been away for the last few weeks, but always watching the waves. The wet season has come to an end in the Sahel (south of the Sahara desert. However, a late-season wave may cause problems along coastal Africa from Sierra Leone through Senegal this weekend and Monday. It is unclear if the disturbance will have any impact on Cabo Verde. The models have not handled this situation very well and so it needs watching over the days ahead.
The disturbance is best captured at 10000 feet which show the system moving westward in yesterday’s forecast and then moving northward along the coast this weekend.
The system will probably produce rain along the west coast of Africa but rainfall is forecasted poorly in general, with the most likely rain coming this weekend through Monday.
While there is dry air occasionally coming into the zone at 5000 feet, it does not appear that it will play a big role in the weakening system this weekend. The moisture provides a pouch for the system to develop. This is another reason to keep a watchful eye.
The African Easterly Jet (AEJ) at 10000 feet has gone south which means the zone to watch for disturbances is now over the Gulf of Guinea. These storms are less likely to be impacted by Saharan dust over the next few weeks, but Saharan Air will eventually become more important.
The Western Atlantic and Caribbean Sea
The weakened waves that come from Africa can still form tropical disturbances in the Western Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, but it becomes complicated in October. Upper-level shear, troughs, and even mid-latitude fronts can complicate the situation relative to the summer. The National Hurricane Center is watching two potential disturbances, with models producing different solutions at this point.
If you live along the Gulf coast, please continue to listen to your local news as October storms can move quicker than summer storms because of mid-latitude troughs. Whether you are live near the Gulf of Mexico or along the west coast of Africa, please stay vigilant over the next week!!