Author: gsjoko

Tonight, we sit at the edge of a tense next few days that will have implications for the short (6 months) and near term future (5-10 years). The US presidential election is divided, polarized, and potentially violent. While we are all concerned about which votes are counted, voter intimidation, and when the final winner will be declared, a major hurricane is bearing down on Nicaragua and Honduras. This hurricane has 150 mph winds (Cat 4) and continues to intensify. This morning it was a 90 MPH storm and may reach Category 5 status before landfall. Before I continue let me take you back in time to the last millennium (1998).

Hurricane Mitch

As a young professor at Penn State, I watched this storm and was awed as it made its way into Honduras and was like OMG.

Hurricane Mitch killed at least 10,000 people during the few days that is moved across central America. Winds reach an incredible 160 mph and many feet of rain fell as it passed across Central America leading to mudslides. The storm also emerged back into the Atlantic as a tropical depression after massive damage and fatalities. This hurricane called an incomprehensible amount of suffering and grief.

Back to Nov 2020

Not only has this been a record-tying season for the total number of storms, but I have never seen so many storms rapidly intensify as they head into land-masses. Last week it was Zeta slamming into NOLA, and the models all under-predicted the intensity of this event. There are probably areas that still may not have power. While the science of hurricane intensification is still developing, the warm water and ripe conditions (low shear) have made the prediction of tropical cyclones more uncertain. Just one day ago, no model predicted that Eta would become a major category storm and approach Cat 5 status. This has major implications for protecting the population at landfall.

Eta is forecasted to make landfall overnight with a devastating punch. with widespread impacts including Jamaica. Check out what the National Hurricane is saying

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America.  Flash flooding and river flooding are also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as  much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore  winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


Note that the storm may re-emerge in the Caribbean Sea .  So while we will all be engrossed with US politics, please pay attention to the tropics next week.

Nov 3 — Vote

If we don’t mitigate the effects of climate change by cutting greenhouse gases, expect more rapidly intensifying storms. The Trump Platinum plan would be wiped out in one or two Eta storms. His plan is paper thin for black and brown communities that have suffered for decades from pollution emitted by dirty power plants, extraction sites and refineries in coastal zones and all throughout America. He can never produce the manufacturing jobs that we need because he forgets about institutional racism, in addition oil jobs do not employ many people and coal jobs cause black lung and destroy the environment. Jobs from renewable energy provides the best chance for employing young people of color for long periods of time to addressing the climate crisis. Most importantly, his plan does not consider the current impacts that are impacting poor and communities of color from extreme events that are likely caused by anthropogenic climate change. The one item that starts the action to protect the beautyful ones not yet born –the Paris agreement, is never going to be signed if he gets reelected — he said that, not me. I just reiterating the message.

See yall tomorrow. Be safe and remember the ballot is the opposite of the bullet.

One week away from the 2020 US elections with so much tension in the air about the future. COVID-19, anthropogenic Climate change, 27 Named Tropical Storms, strong evidence of Thwaites glacier collapse, plastic pollution, police brutality around the world and need for social justice fills the air like a thick fog. No one knows what the next two weeks will hold and if peace will reign over violence.

In the background, there has been so much discussion about the 17 UN Sustainable goals for 2030.

I love all of these goals, but how do they manifest in the lives of normal people. What can they do? The main problem that I have with the SDGs along with Climate actions to address climate change is that they are top-down. They assume that governments will be the driver in all of these actions and that we should wait for the positive outcomes. The 2030 SDGs point to something that will be achieved within 10 years, which I have very serious doubts about. I remember meeting someone back in 2005 and they told me about the zero poverty goal for 2015. He really believed that it could be achieved and I just chuckled and thought this dude is dreaming. He does not know that the poor are part of a pyramid structure with a few rich at the very top. So while I am 100% behind the SDGs, I don’t know what principles serve as their foundation. Honesty, equity, fairness, balance, distribution of wealth, access, anti-racism, gender balance… and who came up with the foundational principles? Further, who provides the checks and balances?

I believe that the African worldview which is thousands of years old and still practiced today throughout the continent and the diaspora could really provide a functional basis for addressing our major challenges. Let me explain…

Those living are connected to the unborn and the dead (ancestors) where time is not linear but continuous in the forward and backward directions. The knowledge of the past gives us wisdom and is passed down from generation to generation to protect those unborn. Not just the unborn kids that women carry now, but those who will come 100 or 1000 years from now. Many say that one can communicate with ancestors, but at the minimum, they provide protection to the individual and ultimately the community. This connection is a strong guiding principle but there is more to pull from the past…

When people talk about Egypt they think of the Pharaoh and the pyramids. But even those dynasties were built on principles.

But the truth is that the period of the Pharaoh’s didn’t just come from anywhere or an alien society. The principles were very African and built on earlier periods (pre-pharaonic). These principles are literally written on the walls throughout present-day Egypt (Kemet).

The pre-pharaonic period provided the blueprint with the Maat sisters (Ast and Nebthet) providing balance, fairness, honesty justice, right thought and action, Jehwty providing measures to build, protect advance the mind, community and society, and Asar providing the voice to spread the blueprint to individuals and societies to improve their situation — he was a sharer of knowledge and not a keeper of knowledge like many of the institutions of higher learning that exist today.

Using principles such as those from Pre-Pharaonic Egypt and the African Worldview how can any individual, family, community come to grips with the multitude of challenges facing the globe? First, the principles of Maat and Jehwty gives each of us guidance about how to deal with challenge. For example, is my solution balanced and fair?, does it take into account the widsom of the ancestors?, does it protect future generations?

Lets take a stab at some contemporary problems

COVID-19

This is a disease that has killed more than 1 million people worldwide and more than 230,000 in the United States alone in the last 10 months. While we are all thinking about vaccines, social distancing, and masks as solutions, what would the African Worldview suggest? First, it would ask about the unborn, living, and ancestors. The elderly who are inline to become ancestors would be protected the most because their knowledge and wisdom must be passed down to the living and the unborn. When the grandparent dies before the proper time, knowledge, experiences, stories, and wisdom are lost and not sharable with the unborn.

So the burden falls on the living who must ask: am I using a fair and balanced approach along with right thought and action to protect the elders and the unborn? It’s not about your freedom but your responsibility.

Having widespread tests available to monitor the disease is the principle of Jewhty and spreading the word about the dangers is the principle of Asar. Such principles would likely lead to a reduction in the disease prior to any vaccine. We have the ancestors who survived the 1918 pandemic and wrote about their experiences, how do they inform us? It’s not about Dr. Fauci, Trump, Biden or the government but each individual.

Climate Change and Extreme Weather

The need to provide energy for society is natural, but when that need endangers the living through extraction, toxic fumes, oil spills and warming which threatens the oceans, may collapse the ice sheets, and is fueling weather extremes the principles driving the action are wrong. What about the African Worldview.

First, any activities that threaten the living would need to be addressed. This is the principle of Maat and considers the fairness and justice of such activity. Once it was clear from the observations (Jehwty) that dangerous outcomes were possible and this was discussed locally or globally (Asar), then the right thoughts and actions would be required. Not for the sake of profit but for the protection of the living and unborn, period!

The technology to move away from the negative impacts of fossil fuel already exists but the action of a typical politician does not consider justice. They see power, staying in office, and control of resources and people. This is a losing proposition. So what about the individual? Each of us must consider right action and thought, because we know that change is occurring now, with floods, fires, hurricanes, and warming.

We are past the point of asking if scientists are confident, now we must protect the present and future with our own right actions. At a minimum, vote for a president who protects the unborn by acting to mitigate greenhouse gases and preparing society to adapt. Conserve energy by driving less, winterizing your house, buying fuel-efficient cars, hybrids, or electric vehicles. Put pressure on your representatives, jobs, and cities to see carbon neutral policies. Most of all, consume less because that is the driver of emissions. When the time comes, we will have to accept adaptation — some areas will not be liveable from Climate Change. Such a sad thought but we will have to explain it to the unborn.

Sustainability

This is the core principle around the African Worldview. In this worldview, an individual or society cannot deplete resources, leaving anything for the unborn. I think about the fact that elephants were abundant in Senegal throughout time but taken for ivory and within two hundred years depleted by Europeans who also took people as slaves in collaboration with the various kingdoms in Senegal. There is a balance between nature and society with the ancestors providing the best practices on addressing scarcity and wealth. They presented no deadline like the SDGs for 2030, it was a way of life. Profit does not take precedence over the people or the environment. Sadly, the development of western civilization came at the expense of Africa and other indigenous societies in the Americas and Australia. The African worldview was seen as less because it never sought outright profit without considering the consequences.

However, I might say that hierarchical systems in Africa (kings and queens, militaries, governments) did not and do not share the core principles of the African worldview (slavery, caste, and class systems are wrong). So the principles of Maat, Jewhty, and Asar could not be implemented in such a system and the foundation was already in place for TranSaharan and TransAtlantic Slavery with Europeans arrived. Today, extraction, loss of biodiversity, and injustice can be found across the continent and the diaspora based on profit and greed.

But this will not last forever. Either individuals and societies will find justice, balance, honesty, right thought and action or we and the unborn will continue to suffer the consequences of wrong action.

Still, I believe that even in our faulty thinking there is hope, as titled by author Ayi Kwei Armah The Beautyful Ones Are Not Yet Born — but they are coming.

To learn more about the pre pharaonic period and the African worldview consider reading Ayi Kwei Armah book wat not shemsw – the way of the companions and other books which can be purchased from Per Ankh publishing (bbkwan.com).

Stay cool, and calm (right thought and action) everyone over the next week and vote. Be nonviolent and seek a state of peacefulness.

Blessings.

This morning I am moderating a session on extreme events, which can be watched live at 10:30 EDT (Wednesday, October 7 – https://allatlanticsummit2020.org/live/extreme-weather) in the All-Atlantic Summit (https://allatlanticsummit2020.org/) from Portugal, from Cascais near Lisbon, which are both beautiful cities but quite vulnerable to coastal storms. My center AESEDA (aeseda.psu.edu) is co-hosting this virtual meeting which was to be held in Philadelphia. This summit is focused on the Blue-Economy across the Atlantic and all presentations are available live stream or you can watch them later.

It is the romantic allure of the sea along with commerce that has drawn billions of people worldwide to live in large coastal cities. And while you get a fantastic feeling standing near the sea, you should also know it can be a source of natural hazards and will be the source of a persistent danger because of sea-level rise, now and for future generations.

As of today, we have experienced 26 tropical disturbances, with two systems (Gamma and Delta) forming over the last 10 days. We still have 50 days left in the Atlantic Hurricane season and this will most likely be a record season for Tropical cyclones (27 in 2005). As Major Hurricane Delta impacts the Yucatan later today and the Gulf Coast on Friday, I wonder if all of this talk about coastal resilience is for nothing?

Should we retreat from the coasts or build stronger structures?

Most of us would go with the second answer because as humans we feel that we can always do better. However, the billions of dollars lost over the last 20 years suggest that this might not be the best strategy. The other often overlooked issue is one of equity and justice. There are large disparities in wealth along class, gender, ethnic and racial boundaries. Everyone, cannot afford to rebuild nor can they afford to lose all that they have worked for. Finally, in some locations, such as small island states (Caribbean, Bermuda, Azores, Cabo Verde), the vulnerability cannot be reduced for major hurricanes as we saw with Hurricanes Maria, Irma and Dorian.

A participant at the conference said that retreat is not the worse thing and I tend to agree with him. He was referring to flooding but there are some locations that will flood over and over, no matter what you do. You cannot build resilience in these areas and to move people from the threat seems like the most responsible action.

It won’t get any easier or better for future generations living in coastal zones

Warming oceans, increasing coastal populations, rising sea levels all point to disasters of epic proportions during the coming decades and centuries. Let’s go through each of these carefully.

• Warming Oceans. As the oceans warm, it evaporates more putting more water into the atmosphere. A warmer atmosphere from climate change can also hold more water vapor. This is most likely to lead to more flooding when tropical cyclones form. Warmer oceans also drive stronger hurricanes because it is the conversion of water vapor to liquid rain or frozen ice (very high up), that provides the release of latent heat which drives stronger thunderstorms and updrafts in tropical cyclones. This year we have seen marine heatwaves along the East Coasts of the US and tropical systems were stronger when passing through these areas. By mid-century, all of the oceans will be much warmer than the preindustrial period. Not a good look at all coming.
  
• Sea Level Rise. This poses the greatest long-term threat in my opinion. If you are free today, Watch today’s (Wednesday) on sea-level rise (https://allatlanticsummit2020.org/live/sea-level-rise) at 12 noon EDT (1600 UTC). Dr. Richard Alley, one of the top glacier scientists in the world will show that the large ice sheets are in a state of decay and could pose a serious threat for the next few hundred years potentially in the next few decades. The threats have shifted from thermal expansion from a warmer ocean to the melting of Greenland and now to the potential collapse of Thwaites glacier which raises sea level by 10 feet. Even if this does not happen now, it will happen this decade leaving many coastal communities unlivable.

• More intense Natural Hazards and damage

Natural hazards such as hurricanes or floods have always posed a threat to coastal populations, but there is a multiplier effect in play today. This multiplier effect will increase in the future with warmer oceans, higher atmospheric water vapor amounts and higher sea levels. The current hurricane season suggests that people should begin to think about their living environment relative to natural hazards, if not for themselves for their children.

Do we have a choice but to live with what is happening?

We have a choice, but time is running out. We must hold each other accountable for limiting greenhouse gas concentrations. How can we do that?

1. Reduce your consumption. The more you consume the more energy that is required to make those goods and services and hence more greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Try to be an energy-efficient person.... Turn your lights off, weatherize your house, get solar panels..make electric cars affordable, and drive them…
3. Educate each other about the threats that we are facing. We should have answers when people ask us about the destruction caused by flooding or hurricanes.
4. Hold your leaders accountable. President Trump has put the United States in an isolated position by withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement. The US must re-enter this agreement if we have any chance of working globally to reduce the biggest threat of the 21st century across the globe.

Make a choice about coastal resilience

We can’t have the cake and eat it too in the case of Coastal Resilience. The evidence points to a continued loss of coastal resilience at present and while we can’t stop it, we can slow it down. The only way to do that is to MITIGATE greenhouse gases. This is a collective action of the people. Support politicians who support the future of your children and grandchildren. It’s not just about us !!

Save the date Oct, 7 2055.. for a beautiful morning and breakfast with your grandchildren.

Caio, Chau, Tchau.

Today, there were five tropical systems across the Atlantic, with a 6th emerging off the coast of Africa.

I thought 2005 was bad, but I have never witnessed anything like this in all of the years that I have followed tropical systems. We still have another 77 days left in the season before it officially ends on November 30. We are on the V named storm in mid-September (incredible)! I feel that every African easterly wave that has emerged from Africa has formed a tropical cyclone. It seems like a scary movie from the middle 21st century when the planet is more than 2 C warmer than the pre-industrial period, but it is now.

Climate Change is REAL and affecting Natural Hazards

I don’t know how long we can delude ourselves about what has happened over the last 5 years or more and what is happening this year. The events are causing more flooding, intensifying faster than weather forecast predict while coastal areas are increasing in population. Something is going to give and it’s not going to be these natural hazards. Hurricanes Irma, Michael, Florence, Laura, Harvey, Dorian, Paulette, Sally, Maria, Michael, and lesser storms are doing their damage in real-time.

What is strange about all of this is people’s response. They say we are going to rebuild because that is what we always do. But isn’t that a form of insanity when the systems are getting stronger and doing more damage? What about the people who can’t rebuild? What about the people that don’t recover, can’t afford the price of flood insurance, or get evicted because they are renters? A time is coming, when even those who feel buffered will lose everything and will just give up because they can’t….. any longer.

Overall I feel pessimistic about addressing climate change based on scientific evidence. Why?

1. Because people are disconnected from their contributions to climate change;
2. For many companies the bottom line is profit and they have a strong lobbying platform;
3. Climate change may manifest initially with a short burst (a massive wildfire or hurricane season) but the real change continues to creep on us in an invisible way that the majority of the world cannot envision (polar regions – melting sea ice and ice-sheets, acidification, rising CO2, N2O, and CH4 levels, loss of biodiversity on land and in the oceans;
4. Given the lack of will by countries and individuals to face a short term global pandemic (COVID-19), where the evidence from epidemiologist is clear and the numbers of individuals impacted are right in front of us (29 million cases, 930,000 deaths in the last year) — How can we face climate change?

If you have been or will be in the path of these storms (Cape Verde, Bermuda, Gulf Coast), I hope that you endured the event, are preparing or evacuating if necessary for an upcoming event, stay safe and healthy.

For the second weekend, heavy rainfall is impacting land areas in the Eastern Atlantic. Last week it was Senegal and now it is Cabo Verde. The rain came in late last night as a disturbed area associated with two tropical disturbances developed deep convection and quickly ran over Santiago and its capital Praia. A video from Facebook shows the rushing waters in the capital.

Global models have some issues with this system, because of the interaction with the storm further to the west. This connection means that until these two systems stop interacting then more rain is likely to fall over Cabo Verde for the next 24 hours.

The GFS shows heavy rainfall over the western part of Cabo Verde but there are real uncertainties at present about how much will fall. Rainfall amounts of 2-8 inches are still likely.

The WRF model also shows heavy rainfall over the Western portion of the island of 4-8 (Santo Antao). So when does all of this happen or did it happen already?

Round 2 (Tonight and tomorrow)

Because of the connection between the two tropical systems, Cabo Verde is likely to have more rain tonight and tomorrow, even though the rain has stopped in many areas. Why??

1. The main disturbance is still passing across the countrys and this will be a slow process through Monday. Until the disturbance noted at 850 hPa (5000 feet completely leaves the area, rain will be possible.

2. Moisture

The system in the South is drawing up moisture into Cabo Verde and will likely bring more rain beginning later tonight through Monday, with Santo Antao receiving the most rain and for the longest. The humid air at 5000 feet can be visually seen in the WRF forecast. WRF is forecasting rain of varying intensity is forecast to pass across the country tonight and tomorrow morning in parts of the country and through tomorrow night in Sao Vicente and Santo Antao as a result. Based on the latest satellite images maybe in the next few hours rain will return.

3. Low pressure and Winds.

This system has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone after it passes Cabo Verde in the next few days. It is still possible that the Western parts of the country could see strong winds late Sunday and early Monday. I can’t say with 100 % confidence because there is so much variation in the models and we need to watch the disturbance as it passes Cabo Verde with care and identify any large burst of convection (thunderstorms) which could suggest strengthening.

Key Takeaways

1. The situation is fluid and heavy rain with Flash Flooding over Cabo Verde may occur at any point during the next 24 hours over most of the country. Rain should return to areas in the South over the next few hours. Be prepared to move to safety if necessary.
2. The Western Islands are expected to receive large amounts of rain through Sunday Night/late Monday. Elevated regions will have enhanced rain. Please prepare. Strong winds from the South may also occur from the South.
3. While a tropical depression is not likely until the system passes Cabo Verde late Sunday or Monday, it cannot be ruled out.
4. If you live in an area where water can rush against your house, please pay attention because the foundation can be destroyed.
5. Don’t drive across moving water. The force of moving water can easily carry your car away along with any persons inside.
6. Be SAFE!!

Today, I have been waiting for insights from the model forecast in determining where an area of spin and area of persistent thunderstorms would form off the coast of West Africa. This area would represent a possible threat to Senegal or Cabo Verde depending where it happened. Tonight that area may have appeared to the southeast of Cabo Verde. The weekend forecast has been very complicated because yesterday’s forecast suggested that an area of low pressure would form to the east of Cabo Verde and today’s forecast to the west. The global models were suggesting a varied solution, but one strong possibility of heavy rainfall over Cabo Verde this weekend seemed likely. Let’s break down what we know..

The coastal disturbance

The disturbance has been difficult to determine because of its interaction with a larger disturbance that exited the coast on Thursday and is likely to become a tropical cyclone in the coming days. The models have suggested that the new disturbance would break away on its own with an area of low pressure developing in the Western part of Cabo Verde on Saturday before moving off to the northwest.

However, at 5000 feet above the ground, the 850 hPa relative vorticity distinctly shows that the disturbance would be south of Cabo Verde and pass to the west of the country.

The model forecast show potentially southerly strong winds (30-40 knots at the ground) over Cabo Verde as the disturbance moves by the country on Sunday September 13.

RAIN Amounts during the Weekend

This is another problematic area. The Global model (GFS) suggest very heavy rain over the next 72 hours with the disturbance moving very slowly across Cabo Verde. These values exceed 100 mm (4 inches of rain) over the 72 hours and would likely produce flooding in Santo Antao

The WRF model on the other hand shows the heaviest rain to the west of Cabo Verde. This occurs because the area of low pressure moves off to the West of Cabo Verde. However, if the initial area of low pressure is to the east of Cabo Verde as tonight’s satellite images show, then all of the rainfall would be displaced further to the east and potentially impacting most of Cabo Verde. Gotta watch this one.

Key Take away points

1. The threat of heavy rainfall in Senegal from the coastal disturbance has diminished. This will have the soils to dry out this weekend, but there may still be localized rains.
2. Deep convective clouds have been building over the last hour to the southeast of Cabo Verde. These are likely to produce rain over the country over the next 6-12 hours.
3. The threat of heavy rain and strong southerly winds will persist through the next 60-72 hours in Cabo Verde depending on if and where an area of low pressure develops.
4. Flash flooding could occur in elevated areas of Santiago and Santo Antao.
5. If you live in Cabo Verde, please follow the weather closely tomorrow through Monday and be prepared for heavy rain.

This morning the latest tropical disturbance was located off the coast of West Africa, with the global model forecast showing different solutions for the future of this tropical disturbance (Caribbean path, moving northwest to open waters). The system also has significant implications for Saturday through Monday’s weather in Senegal and Cabo Verde, because a second disturbance now over Guinea is going to move towards the Northwest tomorrow bringing additional rain over Senegal and then Cabo Verde. There are a couple of items to carefully examine in next 24-36 hours.

Recent Flooding in Senegal

The past week has brought a tremendous amount of rain to Senegal because of last weekend’s storms. However, it has also rained over the past two days which doesn’t help. The ground is saturated and needs to dry out. Satellite-based rainfall shows the severity of the situation with very high rainfall amounts (4-6 inches of rain) across Senegal during the past week.

The WRF model is again forecasting relatively high rainfall amounts from Dakar and South(4-8 inches) because of a forecast squall line tomorrow and the disturbance that will move near Senegal in the next few days.

How the Low-pressure area will impact the weekend weather

If you examine the animation above there is evidence of the main area of low pressure and at the end of the forecast the second area of low pressure. While they seem independent they aren’t. In fact, this is the complicated part of the forecasts.

This is evident through examination of the 700 hPa level vorticity where you can see that the main storm and the secondary storm are interacting with each other — not exactly binary interactions but something like that. At the end of the forecast, the secondary low breaks away from the main flow.

What all of this shop talk amounts to is uncertainty. For example, Tropical Storm Paulette which may eventually impact Bermuda form from the merging of two AEWs. I see three possibilities:

1.) the wave that emerged today, absorbs the AEW off the coast of Senegal this weekend with only rain in Cabo Verde but still some rain in Senegal.

2.) The wave that emerged today, captures the AEW for part of the period and the second wave eventually breaks away –as in the WRF forecast with some rain in Senegal and Cabo Verde

3.) The wave that emerged today remains as a separate entity from the second wave. That second wave could have a stronger circulation and being rain to coastal Senegal and heavier rain to Cabo Verde.

Not easy to tell, but hopefully tomorrow we will have more insight into this situation.

Key Takeaway

1. Senegal remains extremely vulnerable to additional flooding because of smaller scaled weather events and the potential for more rain tomorrow through Saturday.
2. The wave that emerged today may speed across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean, stay of the ocean, or hang out for a lower period in the Eastern Atlantic.
3. The Western and Central Atlantic along with the Gulf of Mexico also have tropical systems and potential disturbances. Stay alert and check in on the National Hurricane Center’s webpage

Be safe and stay cool.

On Tuesday afternoon, Senegal and Cabo Verde were finally clear of the bad weather from TS Rene. Flooding was the main impact across both countries from TS Rene. While the models had been suggesting some development, what manifested was not expected entirely. WRF had been suggesting the heaviest rains in Western Senegal. But the large vortex that emerged was shocking.

Satellite images suggested very heavy rain and the irain product suggested that rain was heavy and the WRF forecast model was suggesting up 12 inches of rain in some places. Below are videos from Senegal including Dakar, Mbour, Thies and Diamdiadio (western Senegal) that were sent to me from colleagues by whatsapp and taken by video from people in those regions.

You get the point, that the situation was serious and potentially life-threatening for people and animals. I am going to comb through the surface observations this morning to get a sense of what fell on the ground.

Cabo Verde

Tropical Depression 18 and then Tropical Storm Rene passed directly through the center of Cabo Verde. However, the reports are that it escaped heavy winds but there were reports of flooding in Santo Antao the more northwestern island which is very elevated. Satellite rainfall estimates suggest that Boa Vista, Sao Vicente and Santo Antao all received the highest rainfall. Of course, this all needs to be verified by ground measurements.

While, we can attribute this type of flooding to climate change, because of its association with a tropical disturbance, the atmosphere can hold more water vapor on a warmer planet. This will eventually manifest itself in heavier rainfall. Coastal West Africa and Cabo Verde are vulnerable now and definitely in the future unless CO2, Methane and other greenhouse gases are reduced. Because of these locations are situated near the Atlantic Ocean, disturbances have a moisture source to tap and as stated earlier the atmosphere can hold more water in a warmer world. There is evidence in the scientific literature that this is what is happening in West Africa, with heavier rainfall events over the last 2 decades. Future modeling studies by my colleague Dr. Bamba Sylla show that heavier rainfall events will manifest later this century with higher greenhouse gases.

The question that I have always struggled with is when does this happen?, is it gradual or is there a critical value with a tipping point?, after which, we never go back to earlier conditions. All of this feels like climate justice issue for the people in Africa who in general have historically contributed very little to the global burden of greenhouse gases. However, Africa’s its population increases and the use of fossil fuels increase it will contribute, which is why we need a different trajectory for the continent –> Solar energy, electric and hybrid cars and low-emission factories. The technology exists but is not readily made available to the continent and when it is, it is very expensive. Africa please unleash your innovative genius, because it is needed now!